The End of the Road
By Andre Snellings April 6, 2010 • 1:28 PM
Let's finish strong and end the year on a high note
After more than five months of grueling season, here we are now with only a week left. At this point strategy is just about done, and every team is just trying to finish out their games with the best production they can get. I commend anyone that is still reading these articles and working on their teams for having the staying power to make it through, and I hope you had a great season.
In my Rotowire Rules league, it certainly looks like Xbox Allstars is going to hold on for the win. After weeks of chasing him I'm only now even within 1000 points with a few more games to make up, so barring an epic sequence of events he's going to win it. I'm more concerned with holding off Brickhouse Grinders and williamair1 for second place, as both of them are currently within 100 points of my team. That battle will likely continue up until the last game of the year.
I hope that you guys have gotten some use from my articles, and I look forward to doing it again next year. The NBA Stock Exchange remains one of the more unique and entertaining games out there, and it has been fun exploring some of the different ways to try to beat the market. So, let's finish strong and end the year on a high note.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
This week the majority of the highest scorers were mid-priced players like Chris Bosh, Rajson Rondo or Andre' Iguodala. For the week LeBron James and Kevin Durant were the best NBASE scorers of the High Priced Crew (average cost $55.55), and Dwyane Wade was also strong, but Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard were merely average while Carmelo Anthony was pretty bad. The Low Budget guys (average cost $14.76) actually outscored their high-priced competition pretty handily, once again led by now-familiar faces like Manu Ginobili, Stephen Curry, Andray Blatch and Troy Murphy. If you don't have these four guys on your team you just really haven't been paying attention to this space for the last several weeks.
The cream has started to rise to the top as four of the members of the High Priced Crew (average cost $54.08) were among the top six scorers for the week. The Budget Crew (average cost $11.52) hung tough, and were able to almost keep pace in-part because Kobe Bryant and to a lesser extent Carmelo Anthony lagged back from their "teammates". Troy Murphy, Stephen Curry and Manu Ginobili are all making back-to-back appearances on the Budget Squad, indicating they are both explosive and consistent in their production.
- Troy Murphy $13.72 (LeBron James $83.70)
- Stephen Curry $17.50 (Kobe Bryant $60.29)
- Chris Kaman $13.07 (Dwight Howard $52.45)
- Manu Ginobili $14.43 (Kevin Durant $52.06)
- Tyrke Evans $16.28 (Dwyane Wade $47.39)
- Andray Blatche $13.56 (Carmelo Anthony $37.43)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (4/5 - 4/14): There are only 10 days left in the season, so let's cover them all here. Almost everyone has either six games (15 teams) or five games (14 teams) remaining, with the Hornets as the only team with only four games remaining.
Daily Prospectors: There are no games at all on Monday April 5, then there are only two other days with fewer than six games: Thursday (4/8) three games: Cavaliers/Bulls, Clippers/Kings, Lakers/Nuggets Tuesday (4/13) four games: Celtics/Bulls, Jazz/Warriors, Kings/Lakers, Nuggets/Suns
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday Two games: None Zero games: Mavericks, Nuggets, Pacers, Clippers, Lakers, Heat, Timberwolves, Nets, Hornets, Magic, Suns, Trail Blazers
Tuesday/Wednesday Two games: Hawks, Celtics, Bobcats, Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Grizzlies, Bucks, Knicks, Thunder, 76ers, Spurs, Raptors, Jazz Zero games: Lakers
Wednesday/Thursday Two games: Nuggets, Clippers Zero games: None
Thursday/Friday Two games: Bulls, Cavaliers, Lakers Zero games: Warriors
Friday/Saturday Two games: Hawks, Celtics, Bobcats, Mavericks, Pistons, Pacers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Spurs, Wizards Zero games: None
Saturday/Sunday Two games: Warriors Zero games: Jazz
Sunday/Monday Two games: Rockets, Heat, Timberwolves, Knicks, Thunder, Magic, Trail Blazers, Raptors Zero games: Celtics, Jazz
Monday/Tuesday Two games: Nuggets, Kings Zero games: Cavaliers, Hornets
Tuesday/Wednesday Two games: Celtics, Bulls, Warriors, Lakers, Suns, Jazz Zero games: None
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Manu Ginobili ($14.38): I don't care that Ginobili has been in this space for three straight weeks, he is still priced in the $14 range despite averaging 31 points, seven assists and five boards for the past week. He's still underpriced.
Joakim Noah ($13.11) and Taj Gibson ($5.55): Noah is finally getting healthy and he and Gibson showed that they can co-exist on Saturday, when they combined to grab 31 rebounds between them.
Anthony Morrow ($5.87): Morrow is taking his turn again on the Warriors rags-to-riches merry-go-round, averaging 27 points with seven boards over the last three games.
Mike Miller ($6.03): Miller is playing a do-everything role for the Wizards right now, scoring about 20 points with eight boards and four assists in his last three games.
Terrence Williams ($4.69): Williams has been playing a larger distributing role for the Nets, with games of 14 and nine assists in his last three outings.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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Looking for Angles
By Andre Snellings March 23, 2010 • 12:40 PM
We have only a few weeks of season left, which has ramifications for what we can expect from the players that we buy.
Any given injury now could be a season-ender for any player, especially for teams that aren't jostling for playoff position. This can mean either really bad/lottery teams, or really good contenders that have their positions locked, so be careful of buying players on those teams.
Meanwhile, teams that are jostling for playoff position are expecting their players to really round into form and bring them home down the stretch. Young/prime caliber players on these teams are among the safest buys in the game from here on in.
Another safe category of player is the young guy on the lottery team. These teams are building for the future, and they want to see what they have in their rookie/second year players so they play them big minutes and let them take lots of shots. Great for you as an owner.
On the other hand, I'd advise against picking up older players even if their teams are still jostling for position. Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett are visibly picking it up in some games, but in others where their teams are playing well they are getting extra minutes on the bench. It just isn't worth it to put $20 or $25 into a player that could only log 13 minutes in a given game (like Duncan did last week).
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
The High Priced Crew ($53.72) outscored the Budget Crew ($13.71) this week, but not by nearly enough to justify the difference in price tags. LeBron remains on top both as a producer and with the biggest price tag, but the other high-priced guys cycle in great weeks with lesser weeks that essentially puts them on the level of the Budget players. As I mention in the Value stocks section below, Chris Paul is expected to return this week which means that Darren Collison will likely fall off of the Budget Crew in the near future while Paul will likely soon be back in the High Priced crew.
- Troy Murphy $13.09 (LeBron James $78.30)
- Stephen Curry $15.18 (Kobe Bryant $59.88)
- Al Horford $15.12 (Dwight Howard $50.12)
- Darren Collison $11.37 (Dwyane Wade $47.58)
- Manu Ginobili $13.57 (Kevin Durant $47.12)
- Vince Carter $13.94 (Carmelo Anthony $39.05)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (3/22 - 3/28): Most of the league (19 teams) plays four games this week, with ten teams playing three times (Bobcats, Cavaliers, Pistons, Clippers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Hornets, 76ers, Suns, Trail Blazers). The Knicks are the only team that has only two games and should likely be avoided for the week.
Daily Prospectors: There are three days this week with fewer than six games: Tuesday (3/23) four games: Pacers/Pistons, Bobcats/Wizards, Nuggets/Knicks, Clippers/Mavericks Thursday (3/25) three games: Heat/Bulls, Clippers/Rockets, Mavericks/Trail Blazers Saturday (3/27) five games: Jazz/Wizards, Trail Blazers/Hornets, Nets/Bulls, Lakers/Rockets, Mavericks/Warriors
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday Two games: Mavericks Zero games: Cavaliers, Lakers, Trail Blazers
Tuesday/Wednesday Two games: Bobcats, Nuggets, Pacers, Wizards Zero games: Bulls, Heat, Suns, Trail Blazers
Wednesday/Thursday Two games: Rockets Zero games: Pistons, Knicks, Suns
Thursday/Friday Two games: Heat Zero games: Warriors, Grizzlies, Hornets
Friday/Saturday Two games: Lakers, Nets, Jazz, Wizards Zero games: Clippers, Grizzlies
Saturday/Sunday Two games: Bulls, Warriors, Trail Blazers Zero games: Bobcats, Knicks, 76ers
Sunday/Monday Two games: Nuggets, Spurs, Raptors Zero games: Rockets, 76ers, Wizards
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Pau Gasol (24.00)/Lamar Odom ($15.25): Every time Andrew Bynum gets injured, Gasol and Odom explode. Bynum missed Sunday's game with a sore Achilles tendon, and Gasol immediately went for 28 points, 12 boards and three assists while Odom grabbed 13 boards with six assists, four steals and three blocks.
Chris Paul ($22.20): Paul is expected to make his return to the court on either Monday against the Mavericks or Wednesday against the Cavaliers. There is no way to know how much Paul will play, since his team is out of the playoffs hunt and Darren Collison has done so well in his absence. Nevertheless, Paul has LeBron/Wade upside as an NBASE scorer so at his current price tag he is worth taking a flyer on.
Manu Ginobili ($13.57): Ginobili is the primary NBASE option on the Spurs right now with Tony Parker still out and Tim Duncan pacing himself down the stretch. Ginboili has averaged 25.3 points on 54% FG/90% FT with 5.3 assists, 2.8 boards and a steal over the last week.
Beno Udrih ($5.34): With Tyreke Evans (jaw) out, Udrih has stepped up to lead the Kings. He is coming off of a 20-point/17-assist effort on Sunday, and should remain a solid producer until Evans can return.
Jrue Holiday ($4.63): The 76ers are a young team with nothing to play for this season, which means that their young players are likely to get a lot of opportunities down the stretch to build for the future. Holiday is taking advantage of this to finish his rookie season with a bang, as he has averaged 15.5 points with 8.3 boards, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals over the last week.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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King on High... Too High
By Andre Snellings March 16, 2010 • 1:32 PM
LeBron James has finally priced himself out of the range of reasonability.
For much of the year LBJ was battling Kobe Bryant for highest-priced player in the game, with both of them having price tags in the $60s. At that price he was still somewhat of a bargain, as incongruous as that sounds, because he was producing a time-and-a-half what Kobe was for the same price.
In the last month LeBron has started to separate himself from Kobe and everyone else both in the stat sheet and in the price tag. Before his brief injury/schedule absence last week, LeBron was routinely in the mid-$70 range that could break banks but was still conceivably worth it because he has been producing just that much. I even carried him on my team at times, despite the fact that I really needed to carry a full roster to make up games and putting a third of my money into one player limited my options.
When LeBron went for almost 10 days between games in the last two weeks I had to go ahead and sell him. At the time, he was still about $74, and I figured that he might go down a couple of bucks while he was out and if I wanted I could pick him back up when he came back. Instead, his price stayed pretty rock solid during his absence then actually shot up when the news broke that he would return on Friday. And today? Today, LeBron's price tag is almost $85, more than $20 higher than Kobe's and about $40 more than Dwyane Wade's. In fact, you could almost buy Wade and Kevin Durant both for the money that you would have to spend on LeBron.
LeBron is the best producer in the NBASE universe. There's no denying that. And if you can somehow afford to buy him (or better yet you already have him) and it doesn't leave the rest of your team empty, more power to you. But those situations are getting more and more rare, because it just isn't reasonable to spend almost half of your budget on one player. As great as it would be to have those guaranteed big points on my team, I think I'm out of the LeBron James sweepstakes until and unless something takes a big chunk out of his price tag.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
As I mention above, LeBron has priced himself out of reasonable purchase range despite the fact that every week he is the biggest NBASE producer. This week, especially, there were some lower cost options like Luis Scola and Andrew Bogut that scored right with the King. In fact, there was little space at all between what the High-priced Crew (average cost $54.07) and the Budget Squad (average cost $14.91) produced this week. And every name on the Budget Squad has been in this space repeatedly this year, so it's not like there was no way to predict that they could play with the big boys.
- David West $14.98 (LeBron James $84.47)
- Stephen Curry $15.56 (Kobe Bryant $60.23)
- Andrew Bogut $15.58 (Dwight Howard $50.49)
- Tyreke Evans $17.36 (Dwyane Wade $45.69)
- Andray Blatche $13.96 (Kevin Durant $41.26)
- Luis Scola $12.00 (Carmelo Anthony $40.24)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (3/15 - 3/21): Most of the league (17 teams) plays four games this week, with ten teams playing three times (Clippers, Grizzlies, Heat, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nets, Thunder, Suns, Kings, Raptors). But three teams play only twice (Mavericks, Magic, Trail Blazers) and should likely be avoided for the week.
Daily Prospectors: There is only one day this week with fewer than six games: Thursday (3/18) two games: Magic/Heat, Hornets/Nuggets
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday Two games: Nuggets, Pistons, Lakers, Wizards Zero games: Mavericks, Bucks, Thunder, Magic, Trail Blazers, Raptors
Tuesday/Wednesday Two games: Hawks, Bobcats, Bulls, Cavaliers, Pacers, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Nets, Spurs Zero games: Trail Blazers
Wednesday/Thursday Two games: Hornets, Magic Zero games: Pistons, Lakers, Suns, Trail Blazers, Kings, Wizards
Thursday/Friday Two games: None Zero games: Mavericks, Clippers, Grizzlies, Nets
Friday/Saturday Two games: Celtics, Bobcats, Bulls, Warriors, Bucks, 76ers, Raptors, Jazz Zero games: Clippers, Magic
Saturday/Sunday Two games: None Zero games: Timberwolves, Magic
Sunday/Monday Two games: Hawks, Rockets, Thunder, Suns, Kings, Spurs Zero games: Bobcats, Nuggets
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Shawn Marion ($9.03): Marion has really picked it up since Jason Terry went down, averaging 19 points with 11.7 boards and three combined steals/blocks over the last week. The throwback numbers for Marion could end at any time, but as long as it's going he's a bargain at under $10.
Marcus Thornton ($5.40): Thornton has scored at least 23 points, grabbed at least five rebounds, and recorded at least two steals in three of his last four games. He shoots a good percentage from the field, doesn't turn the ball over, and is grossly underpriced at $5.40.
Jason Maxiell ($3.77) and Will Bynum ($5.27): With Ben Wallace and Rodney Stuckey dealing with injuries, Maxiell and Bynum have stepped up and become consistent double-double threats as starters. Stuckey will miss at least the next two games, and Wallace is still listed as questionable after missing six straight games with a knee injury. Thus, Maxiell and Bynum are still likely to outproduce their low price tags in the near future.
Raymond Felton ($8.87): Felton has quietly averaged almost nine assists to go with his 11 points and almost six boards over the last week, nice value for less than ten bucks.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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Hard to Trust the Process
By Andre Snellings March 9, 2010 • 1:16 PM
Rotowire Rules Update, League ID 128896, password ball
As I've written about the past few weeks, my team has been doing well of late as I've started following the advice that I give out in this article. I'm up to second in my league now, top 1600 overall, still rising. But despite that, it is very hard not to get impatient. I'm still way behind the leader with time running down, and it's hard to fight the urge to tinker, to go for the home run.
I've got LeBron James on my team, and this weekend I decided that I needed Dwyane Wade too. But I didn't want to trade LeBron. Which was a problem, because I was carrying a full roster and if I put $120 into just two players there wasn't very much left to go around for another nine guys.
But the thing is, despite what I write every week in the Team Building section, it is HARD to see LeBron and Wade putting up video game numbers without believing that I have to have that on my team. After all, I'm trying to catch up, right? How can I do that if I'm staying frugal, counting game limits and starting $15 players when the leader is getting LeBron's ridiculous performances?
The answer: trust the process. I'm not saying you shouldn't go after LeBron and/or Wade on your team…as I mention in this week's Team Building section, Wade is actually a good guy right now with his potential to explode down the stretch. But what I am saying is, know your finances and your situation. If you can't afford Wade without gutting your team, then for you he actually isn't a good buy.
Think of it like trying to run a mile. If you sprint every so often (LeBron, Wade) but then walk for a half-mile to catch your breath (leaving spots blank or going too far into the bargain bin) then in the end your mile will be much slower than if you just paced yourself and ran a consistent, but smart mile (maximizing production for your dollar). In the end, your team has to be more important than getting sexy numbers from any one player. Run your race, and don't worry about how anyone else is spending their money. Trust the process.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have separated themselves from the pack this week, though James' unexpected injury break on Saturday definitely hurt a lot of teams. James is already just about price-maxed, but Wade's cost is still down because of the week that he missed with the calf injury. So far it appears that Wade is about to embark on a late-season explosion similar to the way he went off last season, and if so he's actually still a good buy even though he's a High Priced Guy (average cost $50.07).
Despite the lack of a front-end superstar, the Budget Crew (average cost $13.50) did well in comparison to their higher priced cohorts because they almost uniformly produced very well. Stephen Curry is on the team again despite not even having that great of a week, but even his lesser games these days are very strong. Kevin Love is on here with a grain of salt, because last week Al Jefferson sat out and may have helped Love produce more.
- David West $12.98 (LeBron James $73.78)
- Darren Collison $12.92 (Kobe Bryant $60.33)
- Andrew Bogut $14.80 (Dwight Howard $53.10)
- Kevin Love $11.46 (Kevin Durant $45.00)
- Aaron Brooks $13.53 (Dwyane Wade $44.86)
- Luis Scola $12.47 (Carmelo Anthony $36.98)
- Stephen Curry $16.35 (Rajon Rondo, $36.47)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (3/8 - 3/14): Most of the league (16 teams) plays four games this week, with ten teams playing three times (Bulls, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pistons, Warriors, pacers, Bucks, Thunder, Wizards). But four teams play only twice (Hawks, Rockets, Lakers, Suns) and should likely be avoided for the week.
Daily Prospectors: There are two days this week with fewer than six games: Monday (3/8) five games: Mavericks/Timberwolves, Spurs/Cavaliers, Hawks/Knicks, Warriors/Hornets, Nets/Grizzlies Thursday (3/4) three games: Hawks/Wizards, Bulls/Magic, Trail Blazers/Warriors
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday Two games: None Zero games: Nuggets, Pistons, Thunder, Suns
Tuesday/Wednesday Two games: Celtics, Bobcats, Clippers, Heat, 76ers, Kings, Raptors, Jazz Zero games: Hawks, Cavaliers, Warriors, Suns
Wednesday/Thursday Two games: None Zero games: Hawks, Cavaliers, Rockets, Pacers, Lakers, Bucks, Suns, Wizards
Thursday/Friday Two games: Bulls, Trail Blazers Zero games: Hawks, Mavericks, Rockets, Raptors
Friday/Saturday Two games: Nuggets, Pistons, Clippers, Grizzlies, Nets, Knicks, Spurs, Wizards Zero games: None
Saturday/Sunday Two games: Magic, Raptors Zero games: Bulls, Lakers
Sunday/Monday Two games: Celtics, Hornets, 76ers, Jazz Zero games: Hawks, Bulls, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Nets, Spurs
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Manu Ginobili ($10.88): Ginobili has been slowly ramping his game up anyway, but now that Tony Parker is out Ginobili will have to pick up even more of the slack for the Spurs to have a shot to move up in the playoff standings in the next month.
Carl Landry ($8.98): Landry seems to have finally found his level in Sacramento, and has scored at least 20 points with at least eight boards in three straight games now.
Tayshaun Prince (5.60): Prince is in this space for the second week in a row because he just continues to ramp up now that he is healthy. He is averaging almost 21 points and six boards over the last week.
Carlos Delfino ($5.06): Delfino is Mr. All-Around for the Bucks, and is actually averaging a double-double over the last week.
Quentin Richardson (4.56): Richardson is a streaky player, and over the last few games he has been in the zone. He likely won't hold that for the rest of the season so he would strictly be a hot pick to drop at the first sign that the ride is over. But anyone that can average more than 20 points, almost eight boards, and more than two steals over a week for less than $5 is worth a look.
Rodrique Beaubois ($3.57): With Jason Terry recovering from face surgery, Beaubois will have to have more weeks like this one, in which he averaged 21 points a game.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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Closing the Gap
By Andre Snellings March 2, 2010 • 8:57 AM
For those that have been following (or joined) my league, you know that my team got off to a slow start out the blocks.
For most of the season I have been like the typical parent, saying "do as I say, not as I do". In this space I break down all of the matchups and give NBASE insights to you guys, but I didn't actually start following my own advice regularly until about a month ago. At that time my team had fallen to between eighth and tenth in my league, and I was a few thousand points behind the leader.
But now? In the immortal words of Vince Vaughn: "Now it's a party!" As of Sunday I have moved up to third in my league and into the top-2000 overall. And rising. I'm within 300 points of the second-place team, and even the leader who I had somewhat given up on catching, is now coming back to the pack a bit. He's still got a 1900 point lead on me, but considering he was up by more than 2700 points less than two weeks ago and there's still more than a month left…you never know.
So, what does this mean to you? First of all, let me reiterate something that I introduced last week: the most important section to read in this article for the rest of the season is 'Team Building', followed by 'Value Stocks' with 'Beating the Market' now trailing the pack. It is good to somewhat keep an eye on the schedule, but the biggest benefit of knowing who plays a lot of games in any given week is to try to take advantage to build fast money.
Well, the time for that strategy has passed. Hopefully you built your squad's finances early in the year, but right now your main focus should be on putting together the best possible team that you can afford (all twelve roster spots if possible, but definitely all nine starting spots) and sticking with it barring chances for obvious upgrades or injuries. Your finance level is pretty much what it's going to be at this point, now you've got to try to make the points push to move up the rankings.
So why the 'Team Building' and 'Value Stocks'? Because if you follow those sections weekly you should be able to get a feel for what moderate-to-cheap priced players are consistently producing at the level of the big dogs. Anyone reading this, unless you have a $400 budget and can afford to just fill your team with high-priced studs, there is absolutely no excuse for you to not have players like Darren Collison and Stephen Curry on your team. They are on the "Budget Team" in the Team Building section pretty much every week, which means every week they are producing like that $40 players for their $10 - $15 price tags. Fill your team up with guys like this, ride their hot streaks into the ground, and when they cool off swap them out for the new hot players. That's what this game is all about…find value, use that value, then swap that value for an upgrade. This is what is helping me close the gap on the leaders, and hopefully it'll help your teams finish strong as well.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
Dwyane Wade returned from a calf injury on Sunday, so for the first time in a while all of the High Priced Players (average cost $51.99) are playing at the same time. I'm not convinced that they are all fully healthy, though, as Carmelo Anthony had an awful week and Wade didn't perform to his standards either in his return.
On the other hand, the value players (average cost $15.27) are balling right now. Andray Blatche has stepped up to become a legitimate fantasy superstar, averaging almost the same number of points as LeBron James since moving into the starting line-up. This is likely Russell Westbrook's last week in this section, as his price tag has been right at the $17.50 cutoff for about a week now and as of Monday he had moved up over $18.
That brings up another point as well. In this section I talk about the very high-priced (over $35) and the very low-priced (under $17.50) players but there are also many moderate-priced players who cost somewhere in between those boundaries that could help your team. Zach Randolph, for example, was a former Budget All Star before he played his price tag up into the low $20s. Just because you don't see his name in this space doesn't mean he isn't still a great buy for that price, as he still has a steady spot on my own team. In fact, if you have a slightly larger budget it could behoove you to spend most of your money on these moderate-priced players since they tend to be a bit more consistent than the Budget guys without completely breaking the bank.
- Stephen Curry $15.28 (LeBron James $73.06)
- Russell Westbrook $17.49(Kobe Bryant $59.04)
- Andrew Bogut $16.74 (Dwight Howard $55.32)
- Brendan Haywood $12.78 (Kevin Durant $46.47)
- Andray Blatche $12.31 (Carmelo Anthony $39.46)
- Chauncey Billups $17.00 (Dwyane Wade $38.57)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (3/1 - 3/7): Most of the league (18 teams) plays four games this week, with ten teams playing three times (Bulls, Heat, Bucks, Nets, Hornets, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Raptors, Jazz, Wizards). The Timberwolves only play twice this week, but they don't have many viable options anyway with Al Jefferson suspended the next two games (DUI discipline).
Daily Prospectors: There are two days this week with fewer than six games: Tuesday (3/2) four games: Celtics/Pistons, Warriors/Heat, Kings/Thunder, Pacers/Lakers Thursday (3/4) three games: Grizzlies/Bulls, Lakers/Heat, Jazz/Suns
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday Two games: None Zero games: Bucks, Timberwolves, Nets, Wizards
Tuesday/Wednesday Two games: Celtics, Pistons, Warriors, Pacers, Thunder, Kings Zero games: Bulls, Spurs, Raptors, Jazz
Wednesday/Thursday Two games: Grizzlies, Suns Zero games: Spurs, Raptors
Thursday/Friday Two games: Lakers Zero games: Rockets, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers
Friday/Saturday Two games: Hawks, Bobcats, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Warriors, Pacers, Clippers, Bucks, Nets, Knicks, Spurs Zero games: Trail Blazers
Saturday/Sunday Two games: Rockets Zero games: Hornets
Sunday/Monday Two games: None Zero games: Bobcats, Bulls, Pacers, Clippers, Heat, Bucks, Suns, Jazz
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Brendan Haywood ($12.31): Haywood has been a consistent double-double since joining the Mavs, especially after Erick Dampier went down again with injury. Haywood doesn't miss many shots, hardly ever turns the ball over, and has been good for three to four combined blocks and steals per game.
Andray Blatche ($12.31): As alluded to above, Blatche has been putting up fantasy MVP numbers since moving into the starting line-up. Over the last week he has scored about 28 points with 13 boards, four assists, two blocks and two steals per game. At this price tag he is a must-buy.
Al Harrington ($9.13): Harrington went on a scoring binge this weekend, scoring 68 points in two games spread over about a 24 hour period. With the dust settling after the busy trade deadline, it appears that the Knicks intend for Tracy McGrady to be the lead scorer. But since McGrady's knee is still tricky, Harrington seems to be the guy that gets tabbed to pick up the scoring slack when T-Mac is slowed.
Tayshaun Prince ($5.55): Prince started off the season slowed by injuries, but in recent weeks he seems to have recovered his form. He is playing big minutes and contributing across the board these days, averaging 16.2 points, 7.0 boards, 4.4 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks and steals in 40 minutes per game over his last five outings.
CJ Watson ($3.83): Watson got sick last week and missed a game, but he returned on Saturday with another strong game in 45 minutes of play. Monta Ellis continues to be in-and-out of the line-up with various ailments, and Watson is still in the right place on the right team to put up great numbers for his ultra cheap price tag.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
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