As I mentioned in the intro this game, and the corresponding blog, one of the most important elements to dominating the Drive is establishing a bracket, much as you would for the NCAA tournament. Obviously, it's unlikely that each series will play out exactly as you expect; still, it's helpful to have a guiding force to your picks.
A couple of my choices to advance, Utah and San Antonio, have raised questions about my sanity in the Drive's forums. I can see why: both of those teams' opponents -- Denver and Dallas, respectively -- are seeded higher. In the latter case, Dallas is actually a second seed, while San Antonio is seventh.
I think I did a pretty good job explaining my decisions in the forums, so I'll reprint here what I said there:
Research tells us that, as opposed to mere win totals, a team's point differential is considerably more accurate in predicting future wins. Let's take the Dallas/San Antonio matchup, for example. Dallas had 55 wins this season; San Antonio, only 50. But while Dallas averaged 102.0 points per game and allowed 99.3, San Antonio scored 101.4 per game while allowing only 96.3. They scored 0.6 fewer points but prevented almost 3 whole fewer points. Using what nerds call the Pythagorean Win Theorem, we find that a team with Dallas's numbers would've typically won only about 49 games. San Antonio? They'd have won 55 wins.
Beyond this is a metric called Simple Rating System (SRS), which not only takes into account point differential, but also strength of schedule (SOS). Every team's rating is their average point margin, adjusted up or down depending on the average point margins of their opponents. So, an exactly average team with an exactly average SOS would have an SRS of 0.
Going back to the Mavs/Spurs exacmple, we see that Dallas has an SRS +2.67 while San Antonio has a +5.07. San Antonio is essentially two and half points better than Dallas. This is why I consider San Antonio a strong favorite in their series against Dallas despite the seeding.
The Dallas/San Antonio example is only one case. Here are the remainder of the SRS numbers, courtesy of Basketball Reference.
East
1 Cleveland - 6.17
8 Chicago - 1.63
4 Boston - 3.37
5 Miami - 2.00
3 Atlanta - 4.44
6 Milwaukee - 1.38
2 Orlando - 7.12
7 Charlotte - 1.30
West
1 LA Lakers - 4.78
8 Oklahoma City - 3.55
4 Denver - 4.15
5 Utah - 5.33
3 Phoenix - 4.68
6 Portland - 3.18
2 Dallas - 2.67
7 San Antonio - 5.07
A couple observations here. For one, you'll notice that SRS likes Utah. A lot. Like, a real lot -- to the point where'd they beat Los Angeles if you just went by the numbers. With the questionable health of Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko -- that, plus the return of Andrew Bynum to Los Angeles -- well, that's probably not gonna happen. For two, SRS also like San Antonio, and I'm totally willing to second that motion real hard. San Antonio has three very efficient stars in Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker; some talented role players in George Hill, Richard Jefferson, and Antonio McDyess; and probably the best coach in basketball in Gregg Popovich. I would not be surprised to find them in the Western Conference Finals.
A common warning I received from the forums was that I shouldn't obey the numbers too much. To that I replay, "N'doy." But I also reply: "Be warned that season win totals are even less predictive than SRS." I see a lot of Drivers going with Dallas just because. Yes, the home court advantage will help them -- as will the additions, respectively, of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood -- but please note that Dallas was not the better regular season team. They just got win-lucky.
With that said, here are this week's picks. Please note: they are highly subject to change, based on the fates of each player's repsective teams.
Date: Monday, April 19, 2010
Player: Derrick Rose - CHI
Opposition: at Cleveland
2009-2010 Averages: 20.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 6.0 APG (30.5 PRA)
General Thoughts: If my not-so-secret plan had worked and Denver had lost to Utah, I'd be picking the hell outta Chauncey Billups right now. Alas, Denver won. And not only that, but now, with Mehmet Okur's health in question, Utah's chance of winning their first round matchup -- a chance that I wagered to be above fifty percent before Game One -- appears to have dropped. Fortunately, Derrick Rose is hardly a downgrade. If I have one misgiving, it's having to play him away. Yeah, I realize how well he played Saturday night under very similar circumstances, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect, such performances. Anyway, outside of Milwaukee, Chicago's the team least likely to go through to the second round. The Driver needs to get while the getting's not only good, but even there at all.
Date: Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Player: Russell Westbrook - OKC
Opposition: at Los Angeles Lakers
2009-2010 Averages: 16.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 8.0 APG (29.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: Portland's Game One victory at Phoenix makes today's pick a whole bunch easier. With the guarantee of a Game Five in that series, the Driver can now turn his gaze more comfortably to the other three matchups: Milwaukee at Atlanta, Miami at Boston, and Oklahoma City at Los Angeles. Each poses some difficulty as, in each case, the away team is also the one most likely to be eliminated. That makes it difficult to leverage a player's performance on his home court. In any case, Westbrook makes sense for me, not only because of the 35 PRA he posted again LA on Sunday, but also for (a) his favorable matchup against Derek Fisher and (b) his broad base of skills, which allows him to post high PRA totals even if he's, for example, not scoring at a high level.
Date: Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Player: Gerald Wallace - CHA
Opposition: at Orlando
2009-2010 Averages: 18.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 2.1 APG (30.4 PRA)
General Thoughts: There are two things every Driver should know about Charlotte. First, is that, along with the Bulls, they're probably the team that's least likely to move through to the second round. The second thing is that Charlotte features two must-plays and two reasonable plays in the Drive to the Finals. Wallace and Stephen Jackson (29.2 PRA for the season) are the musts; Raymond Felton (21.3 PRA) and Boris Diaw (20.4), the reasonables. Totally anecdotally, I see Jackson as a guy who'll perform at his peak level in front of a home crowd, so I'm waiting on him till either Saturday or Monday.
Date: Thursday, April 22, 2010
Player: Kevin Durant - OKC
Opposition: vs Los Angeles Lakers
2009-2010 Averages: 30.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.8 APG (40.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: I specifically chose teammate Russell Westbrook at Los Angeles on Tuesday so that I could leverage Durant's appearance at home tonight. That doesn't mean I think Westbrook's a better pick in the Drive -- not at all. It just means I think Durant -- and the young Oklahoma City squad, generally -- will perform more ably in front of a favorable crowd. Durant averaged more than 40 PRA on the season, largely on the strength of his 30 points per game. Can he do that with Ron Artest guarding him, regardless of the city in which the game's being played? Hard to say. If it happens, though, it'll probably happen tonight.
Date: Friday, April 23, 2010
Player: Dwyane Wade - MIA
Opposition: vs Boston
2009-2010 Averages: 26.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 6.5 APG (37.9 PRA)
General Thoughts: I'm writing this on a Sunday, so I don't have the benefit of knowing whether or not Miami's won Game Two of their series with Boston. But here's my guess: they haven't. Or they didn't. Or -- well, whatever the tense of the verb, I'm guessing Miami's down 0-2 going back to their homeland. From my experience, Florida's not great: you've gotta drive everywhere and the nerd population is super low. But I bet the Heat will be happy to've returned from their spell in the Frozen North. This'll be their big push to take the series, and Wade will almost definitely be the catalyst.
Date: Saturday, April 24, 2010
Player: Stephen Jackson - CHA
Opposition: vs Orlando
2009-2010 Averages: 20.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.7 APG (29.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: Tonight's pick and Monday's are basically interchangeable for me, as I'mma pick a Charlotte player for one and a Milwaukeean (Brandon Jennings, barring something crazy) for the other. So why Jackson tonight? Two reason. For one, though Milwaukee is anything but likely to take their series from Atlanta, Charlotte has even less of a chance. For two, even if Charlotte somehow does move on, they have two other players in Raymond Felton and Boris Diaw who actually wouldn't make the most disappointing picks in the world.
Date: Sunday, April 25, 2010
Player: Luol Deng - CHI
Opposition: vs Cleveland
2009-2010 Averages: 17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.0 APG (26.9 PRA)
General Thoughts: Consider this pick the most tentative of the bunch. (I'm making it the previous Sunday, for criminy's sake!) If San Antonio and Utah have behaved as I've expected them, too, they've won a game by now. If not, I'm still banging those respective drums. One team whose drum is about not even to exist is Chicago's. On any given night, Luol Deng is the player most likely to take (and hit) the second-most shots for the Bulls. Plus, he adds to it the possibility of adding seven or so rebounds. I'm not in love with this pick, but with Chicago about to exit, it's a decent bet for 25 or so PRA.
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