The So-Called Expert is rubbing nothing in the Drivers' respective faces -- about Utah/Denver, or otherwise.
I am stating the obvious when I say that it's been an eventful NBA Playoffs already. Hopefully I'm saying less obvious things in what follows -- a status check on each series to date, and then, right after that, my picks for the next four days.
East
Teams: Cleveland (1/6.17) v Chicago (8/1.63)
Series: Cleveland, 3-1
Next Game: Tuesday, April 27, at Cleveland
Thoughts: I think maybe I whiffed a little on Sunday when I picked Luol Deng over Joakim Noah. For whatever reason, I wasn't believing what I was seeing from the latter. Luckily, Chicago's Game Three victory gives me another chance: I'm picking Noah on Tuesday.
Teams: Boston (4/3.37) v Miami (5/2.00)
Series: Boston, 3-1
Next Game: Tuesday, April 27, at Boston
Thoughts: Miami probably has something like a 25% chance of winning this game -- probably like a 5% chance of winning the series. As such, it'd be ideal to play any relevant picks ASAP. Problem is, after Wade, there really aren't any.
Teams: Atlanta (3/4.44) v Milwaukee (6/1.38)
Series: Atlanta, 2-1
Next Game: Monday, April 26, at Milwaukee
Thoughts: If I'm remembering correctly, the broadcast team calling this game was making a big deal of Atlanta's home/road playoff splits. I'm sure that could be a real thing to affect an NBA team -- especially one with particularly young players and/or a particularly loud home arena. But it's something you'd need a bunch more data to state for shizzle. I don't know how many games, necessarily, but almost definitely more than this particular cast of Hawks has played. In any case, the Hawks are heavily favored still. Pick John Salmons at home, probably. Brandon Jennings might be a Game Seven-type pick, if the series gets that far.
Teams: Orlando (2/1.30) v Charlotte (7/1.30)
Series: Orlando, 3-0
Next Game: Monday, April 26, at Charlotte
Thoughts: Given the SRS numbers for each team, we could've reasonably expected this to be the most lopsided series of the entire playoffs. Whether it'll end up being that way, we'll soon see. Either way, if you haven't played both Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace, tonight's the night to get down on it.
West
Teams: LA Lakers (1/4.78) v Oklahoma City (8/3.55)
Series: Tied, 2-2
Next Game: Tuesday, April 22, at Los Angeles
Thoughts: We can probably bump LA's SRS a couple points, given how they played a part of their season without Andrew Bynum, Kobe Bryant, and/or Pau Gasol. That said, this was probably never going to be a typical first round series, as Oklahoma City isn't a typical eighth seed. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are must-picks. Jeff Green is a distant third at this point, averaging 18 PRA for the playoffs.
Teams: Denver (4/4.15) v Utah (5/5.33)
Series: Utah, 3-1
Next Game: Wednesday, April 28, at Denver
Thoughts: I think probably the Drivers will expect some gloating from me, based on how I backed Utah to take this series (and picked Carmelo Anthony on Day One of the Drive because of it). A couple things about that. First, I was really just using the numbers to guide me. Second, I definitely lost some faith in Utah's chances after Mehmet Okur left Game One with that Achilles injury. And third, the series isn't over yet. Regardless, if you like watching well-played ball, Utah's your team. Deron Williams is fantastically skilled, Boozer is picture of Want-To, and the whole team (maybe with the exception of Fesenko) demonstrates a great understanding. My advice: pick Carmelo and Chauncey while you can. Nene is third on that list, if and when it becomes relevant.
Teams: Phoenix (3/4.68) v Portland (6/3.18)
Series: Tied, 2-2
Next Game: Monday, April 26, at Phoenix
Thoughts: It's difficult to stay objective about the team one follows most often. As I live in Portland, I knew it'd be tough for me to evaluate this series. Yeah, their SRS is lower than Phoenix's, but that number is unable to account for a team whose complexion has been changed radically by the arrival of Marcus Camby. That guy is just defensive gold -- not necessarily in man-on-man matchups, but in every way as a help defender. So who to pick here? For me, no one yet. It's almost definitely a bad move, as Portland has two or three players (LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Miller, a resuscitated Brandon Roy) who could register 30 PRA on any given night.
Teams: Dallas (2/2.67) v San Antonio (8/5.07)
Series: San Antonio, 3-1
Next Game: Tuesday, April 27, at Dallas
Thoughts: Again, just as with the Utah/Denver prediction, there's little room for bragging here: I was just using the numbers. Also, the series isn't ovre yet. That said, if any series was poised for an upset, it was this'n. Among the commentariat, I saw some comments to the effect of, "You can't possibly expect San Antonio to compete in this series. Dallas crushed them in last year's playoff." That's what we in the industry call a "small sample size."
Hey, right below here are some picks for this week, people. One question you ask when you see them is, "Why are there only four days' worth of picks?" To which I reply: "Because the playoffs are flippin' crazy, and it'll be difficult to pick with any authority on Monday for a game that takes place Friday."
Date: Monday, April 27, 2010
Player: John Salmons - MIL
Opposition: vs Atlanta
2009-2010 Averages: 15.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.8 APG (21.5 PRA)
General Thoughts: I notice that Brandon Jennings is the "Hot Pick" for tonight, but if the Driver takes a look, he'll see that Salmons is actually averaging a point, a rebound, and an assist more than Jennings over these first three playoff games. Sample size too small for you? Regard: over the last month, Salmons averaged a 27.2 PRA to Jennings' marks of 21.7. Don't get me wrong: I think Jennings is a talented -- and exciting -- young player. But for the sake of the Drive, Salmons is probably the better bet.
Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2010
Player: Joakim Noah - CHI
Opposition: at Cleveland
2009-2010 Averages: 10.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 2.1 APG (23.8 PRA)
General Thoughts: I picked Dirk Nowitzki in the second overall game of the Drive because I thought (a) the Mavs probably wouldn't make it through to the round of the playoffs and (b) one or two of his teammates might also be worth a pick. As things stand now, only one of those propositions is looking to be the case. Caron Butler and Jason Kidd might ultimately be worth something tonight, but the Bulls are more likely to be eliminate this evening and Noah's been playing out of his giant French head.
Date: Wednesday, April 29, 2010
Player: Chauncey Billups - DET
Opposition: vs Utah
2009-2010 Averages: 19.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 5.6 APG (28.3 PRA)
General Thoughts: When I picked Carmelo Anthony on the very first night of the Drive, it was for this reason: that I wouldn't be faced having to choose between multiple Nuggets in an elimination game. That Anthony gave me 50-something points is icing on the proverbial cake. Now, tonight, I don't have to choose. I can get 30 or so from Billups and rest easy.
Date: Monday, April 27
Player: LaMarcus Aldridge - POR
Opposition: vs Phoenix
2009-2010 Averages: 17.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.1 APG (28.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: This pick is very tentative, as it assumes that Portland has lost their Game Five contest in Phoenix. If that has indeed happened, then Aldridge probably makes the most sense for a Portland team facing elimination at home. Then again, Brandon Roy could make the most sense. Or so could Andre Miller. Decisions! Decisions!
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