Some semi-fine analysis for the conference semifinals.
In this edition of the Drive Blog, I take a look at the four remaining playoff series and the information about them relevant to the Driver. First, a couple notes on what you see here.
Beside each team, in parentheses, you'll find two numbers. The first is the team's seed. The second is the team's SRS number (short for Simple Rating System). Developed by Doug Drinen, SRS is an attempt to look at a team's underlying points-scored and -allowed numbers, adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS). Every team's rating is their average point margin, adjusted up or down depending on the average point margins of their opponents. So, an exactly average team with an exactly average SOS would have an SRS of 0.
Finally, I've included an additional stat -- one that's totally exclusive to this blog, so far as I know -- that I'm calling Nerd Number. Nerd Number is a quick estimate of a team's chances of winning its series. To calculate it, I've used SRS and figured in a typical home/away adjustment of plus or minus three points. I've then averaged out a team's chances of winning each game in a seven-game series and found the average of those seven games. Note that Nerd Number isn't intended to be absolutely predictive. Rather, it's merely an attempt to see who might win the series based on SRS numbers alone.
East
Teams: Cleveland (1/6.17) v Boston (4/3.37)
Nerd Number: Cleveland, 60.2%
Series: Cleveland, 1-0
Plays to Make: Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen
Thoughts: Age might make you wiser, but it probably doesn't make you any better at basketball. That's the problem that's been staring Boston in the face ever since they won Banner 17 a couple Springs ago. Now, with LeBron James only improving and as strong a supporting cast as ever in The Cleve, Boston's chances of winning this series aren't the hottest. With four legitimate picks in Boston, however, the Driver has to go to this particular well early and often.
Teams: Orlando (2/7.12) v Atlanta (3/4.44)
Nerd Number: Orlando, 59.8%
Series: Starts Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Plays to Make: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, maybe Jamal Crawford
Thoughts: For all their ups-and-downs in their seven game series with an undermanned Milwaukee team, Atlanta has an impressive squad, with probably 3.5 legitimate picks for the Driver. Only problem? The Orlando Magic have Dwight Howard and a nice group of sharp-shooting defenders. If you believe the numbers, Orlando is the team most likely to win the NBA Championship this year. Cleveland or LA might eventually have something to say about that; Atlanta probably won't.
West
Teams: LA Lakers (1/4.78) v Utah (5/5.33)
Nerd Number: Utah, 50.4%
Series: Lakers, 1-0
Plays to Make: Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams
Thoughts: With their mark of 5.33, Utah actually has the highest SRS in the entire Western Conference. But they also have three strikes against them in this series. For one, they have one fewer home game on the schedule. For two, they have serious health problems, with Deron Williams, Mehmet Okur, and Andrei Kirilenko in different states of disrepair. For three, the Lakers achieved their SRS while missing 43 games from Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum -- i.e. their three most productive players (by PRA, at least). That, combined with "Laker Mystique," has me picking Los Angeles in this series.
Teams: Phoenix (3/4.68) v San Antonio (7/5.07)
Nerd Number: Phoenix, 50.2%
Series: Starts Monday, May 03, 2010
Plays to Make: Amar'e Stoudemire, Steve Nash, maybe Jason Richardson
Thoughts: Phoenix is the higher seed here, and they were actually a better regular season team by point differential than the Spurs' first-round opponent, Dallas. And, if we look at the numbers, they're actually favored by the slightest margin over San Antonio. There are a couple things those numbers don't know, however. First, they don't know how Tony Parker missed 26 games during the regular season. Also, they don't know how Manu Ginobili averaged fewer than 30 minutes per game during the regular season. Finally, they don't know how San Antonio possesses that nebulous, but very real, quality known as "experience." The series will be hotly contested, most likely, but San Antone looks to be the favorite, despite a lack of home court advantage.
Because it's the playoffs, and because the four series in question will be so closely contested, I'm only including my first two picks of the week here. Here they are for ye:
Date: Monday, May 03, 2010
Player: Paul Pierce - BOS
Opposition: at Cleveland
2009-2010 Averages: 18.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.1 APG (25.7 PRA)
General Thoughts: As much as I'd prefer to take a player on his home floor, I'd rather not end up with a glut of players remaining on a team about to lose it series. There are four legit Celtics to pick and probably 2.5 Suns. I've already picked Rondo, but given that the future outcome of this series is a little more certain than the Phoenix/San Antone series, I'd rather err on that side of things. Hence, Pierce for tonight.
Date: Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Player: Josh Smith - ATL
Opposition: at Orlando
2009-2010 Averages: 15.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 4.2 APG (28.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: Despite the fact that Utah is a game down in its series with the Lakers, I'm approaching this pick with much the same strategy as last night's Paul Pierce selection. Yeah, I'd like to take a player at home, but in this case, there's reason to believe that Atlanta will be exiting their series more quickly than the Jazz, who also play tonight. Moreover, while Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams are realy the only must-picks on Utah, this Atlanta team feature four legitimate picks in Smith, Joe Johnson, Al Horford, and even sixth-man Jamal Crawford. I'd like to avoid a back-log of those guys, if at all possible.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
