It's sweeps week in the NBA playoffs.
Below, what you'll find is a recap of each of the remaining playoff series, and the implications of each given their (i.e. the series) likely respective outcomes.
Beside each team, in parentheses, you'll find two numbers. The first is the team's seed. The second is the team's SRS number (short for Simple Rating System). Developed by Doug Drinen, SRS is an attempt to look at a team's underlying points-scored and -allowed numbers, adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS). Every team's rating is their average point margin, adjusted up or down depending on the average point margins of their opponents. So, an exactly average team with an exactly average SOS would have an SRS of 0.
East
Teams: Cleveland (1/6.17) v (4/3.37)
Series: Tied 2-2
Next Game: Tuesday, May 11, at the Cleve
Thoughts: Boston has certainly made this thing interesting -- certainly more than this So-Called Expert could've expected. But hear me now and believe me whenever you want: Cleveland is still very much the favorite to win this bidness. Some rough -- and very nerdy -- calculations put the Cavs' chances at just above 70% to get to four wins before the Celtics. The moral of this story? Pick Rajon Rondo et al if you haven't already.
Teams: Orlando (2/7.12) v Atlanta (3/4.44)
Series: Orlando, 3-0
Next Game: Monday, May 10, at Atlanta
Thoughts: The Atlanta Hawks have now lost three games to Orlando by a combined total of 77 points. That's about 25 points per game. By comparison, the two worst teams in the NBA, New Jersey and Minnesota, each had point differentials of about 9 pts/g. No, the Hawks aren't this bad, but they're also extraordinaly unlikely to win this series. Their chances now stand at about 5%. Pick Joe Johnson and Al Horford and/or Josh Smith if you haven't yet. Now!
West
Teams: LA Lakers (1/4.78) v Utah (5/5.33)
Series: LA, 3-0
Next Game: Monday, May 10, at Utah
Thoughts: You'll notice that the SRS numbers suggest that Utah was the better regular-season team of these two. Of course, that says nothing of Mehmet Okur's absence, nor of all the games that the Lakers' better players missed during the regular season. In any case, Utah's chances are basically nil right now for winning this series. All the Driver can hope is that Utah sends the series back to Los Angeles.
Teams: Phoenix (3/4.68) v San Antonio (7/5.07)
Series: Phoenix Wins, 4-0
Next Game: N/A
Thoughts: What the what? As I've discussed previously in this same space, the Spurs were never as bad as they're seventh seed suggested (say that five times fast). That said, the Phoenix Suns looked every bit a candidate for Western Conference supremacy with the way they dispatched their Texan rivals. They won't have home court advantage over the Lakers, and that might make all the difference. Either way, they seem poised to give yellow and purple at least a competent fight.
This week, you get four picks; however, the Wednesday tilt between Utah and Los Angeles won't happen in the event that the latter wins in Utah on Monday night. In that case, I very much reserve the right to change my pick.
Date: Monday, May 10, 2010
Player: Deron Williams - UTA
Opposition: vs LA Lakers
2009-2010 Averages: 18.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 10.5 APG (33.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: With both Atlanta and Utah down 3-0, there are a couple questions the Driver needs to ask himself. Question one: do you have similarly talented players available on each team? If so, it probably makes sense to pick a Hawk. They only have about an even chance of winning tonight, even on their home court, while Utah's chances of extending the series are probably closer to 60%. It's not a huge difference, but it's something. Here's a second question: do you still have both Deron Williams and Paul Millsap among your available players, because you were onehundredpercent sure that the Lakers couldn't take the first three game of the series in succession? Okay, that one's a little more specific to my own predicament, but it's the reason why I'm going with Williams today and hoping Utah survives one more day.
Date: Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Player: Kevin Garnett - BOS
Opposition: at Cleveland
2009-2010 Averages: 14.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.7 APG (24.4 PRA)
General Thoughts: You know who's really good at basketball, it turns out? Rajon Rondo. I don't have his line from Sunday right here in front of me, but I think he scored like 70 points or something and had like 37 assists. Again, those are just rough estimates. Anyway, if you haven't picked Rondo yet, do it right this second. I have already. And his teammate Paul Pierce, too (for a game in which he scored more than just 13 PRA). So now it's down to Ray Allen and Garnett. Garnett gets the nod. He has slightly better regular- and post-season numbers. But I'mma make sure to pick Ray-Ray before this thing's over.
Date: Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Player: Paul Millsap - UTA
Opposition: at LA Lakers
2009-2010 Averages: 11.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.6 APG (20.1 PRA)
General Thoughts: I make this pick with the supposition that (a) Utah has won its Monday contest at home versus the Lakers, and (b) the Hawks have not won their Monday contest, also at home, versus Orlando. Actually, as I only really have Jamal Crawford still available, perhaps only (a) is the real consideration. In any case, I really hope Utah won. Otherwise, man, this isn't going well.
Date: Thursday, May 13, 2010
Player: Ray Allen - BOS
Opposition: vs Cleveland
2009-2010 Averages: 16.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.6 APG (22.1 PRA)
General Thoughts: It might be irrational, but I always prefer to take a shooter on his home floor, if at all possible. The home court, it stands to reason, is where an NBA-er feels more comfortable and confident. All things being equal, a comfortable and confident shooter is better than the alternative. Here's to hoping Allen throws down some of his trademark three-bombs.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
