Regional diction is the only way to ask questions about this incarnation of the Celtics.
Below, what you'll find is a recap of each of the two remaining playoff series, and the implications of each given their (i.e. the series) likely respective outcomes.
Beside each team, in parentheses, you'll find two numbers. The first is the team's seed. The second is the team's SRS number (short for Simple Rating System). Developed by Doug Drinen, SRS is an attempt to look at a team's underlying points-scored and -allowed numbers, adjusted for strength of schedule (SOS). Every team's rating is their average point margin, adjusted up or down depending on the average point margins of their opponents. So, an exactly average team with an exactly average SOS would have an SRS of 0.
East
Teams: Orlando (2/7.12) v Boston (4/3.37)
Series: Boston, 1-0
Next Game: Tuesday, May 18, at Orlando
Thoughts: Just going by the numbers, this series shouldn't be much of a contest. Orlando not only had a superior SRS to Boston in the regular season -- they actually had the best one in the entire NBA. Of course, Cleveland had the second-highest mark, and that very clearly didn't bother the Celtics too much. So what gives? Well, first of all, a best-of-seven series, such as we're dealing with here, is still prone to all kinds of variation. The best team doesn't always win. Second of all, there's the distinct possibility that Boston -- and especially a Boston team with Kevin Garnett -- possesses that elusive quality known as "experience."
West
Teams: LA Lakers (1/4.78) v Phoenix (3/4.68)
Series: Begins Monday, May 17
Next Game: Monday, May 17, at LA Lakers
Thoughts: The numbers say this series should be pretty close -- maybe like a 52% chance for the Lakers or so. But, as I've mentioned earlier in this space, what the SRS for the Lakers doesn't show is how Kobe and Gasol and Bynum -- aka the team's best three players -- all missed time this year. Another thing it doesn't show is how, like Boston, the LA Lakers might very well possess that "something special." And even if Kobe Bryant is less physically talented than he has been in his past playoff experiences, he's still a shockingly intense competitor, something which oughtn't be discounted. Meanwhile, the Suns, for their part, have gone some way towards answering their critics. They showed some pretty serious competence in dispatching of the Jazz in four straight games. Whether they're talented enought to topple the Lakers -- well, that's different.
Below are your So-Called Expert's picks for Monday through Wednesday. Why only those days? Because there are no games on either Thursday or Friday, and to make a pick for Saturday hurts this So-Called Expert's mind grapes.
Date: Monday, May 17, 2010
Player: Steve Nash - PHO
Opposition: at LA Lakers
2009-2010 Averages: 16.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 11.0 APG (30.8 PRA)
General Thoughts: I'm not sure that I hate Derek Fisher. That (i.e. hate) seems like an emotion that one should reserve for other situations. That said, I certainly find certain qualities to Fisher's game detestable. Chief among them? The frequency with which he -- despite having probably one of the more impressive physiques among NBA point guards -- with which he seeks to draw the charge. I recognize that it helps his team win games, and, were I a Laker fan, I'd probably appreciate Fisher's ability to contribute to wins in whichever way possible. (I'd also probably like that he's not Sasha Vujacic.) In any case, what I'll enjoy in this series is watching Steve Nash work his magic all over Fisher -- starting with tonight, hopefully.
Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Player: Jameer Nelson - ORL
Opposition: vs Boston
2009-2010 Averages: 12.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.4 APG (21.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: In the regular season, Orlando wasn't really a super-balanced team from a PRA (points + rebounds + assists) perspective. After Dwight Howard's 33.3 mark, no other Magician scored above 24, as Vince Carter (23.8), Jameer Nelson (21.0), and Rashard Lewis (20.0) we barely even rosterable in NBA.com's Pick One Challenge. In the playoffs, that seems to've changed a bit. Howard is averaging only 28.3 PRA, while Nelson is recording 28.7 and Carter, 24.4. From a strategic POV, this pick is even more acceptable than Sunday's Dwight Howard selection: Orlando is one game closer to being eliminate than they were then.
Date: Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Player: Jason Richardson - PHO
Opposition: at LA Lakers
2009-2010 Averages: 15.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.8 APG (22.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: I make this pick for two reasons. For one, I'm assuming that Los Angeles has come away victorious from Game One of the conference final, thus meaning I should be making an effort. For two, I've already selected Nash and Amar'e. Richardson's an interesting player: after only averaging 22.6 PRA during the regular season, he's had a super productive playoffs, averaging 29.2 PRA, predominantly on the strength of his 21.9 points per game. Can we expect the same sort of scoring from Richardson's during the conference finals? Hmm, probably not. If everything works out as it should, Richardson might very well find Ron Artest guarding him. That's not so good. In any case, he's a Must Pick for Driver, and this is as good a time to do it as any.
