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Please allow me to beat the deadest of horses by announcing, for the nth time in these electronic pages, that one of the most direct means by which to attain Pick One surpremacy -- more direct, certainly, than just getting as many points as possible as soon as possible -- is to excel at finding points in unexpected places.

Which is to say: While we know that last year's winner baddddboyyyy averaged approximately 30 PRA/g, the Challenger needn't tally 30 PRA every night. By my count, only 35 players are averaging 30+ PRA/g. One would have to be very fortunate -- or even a minor deity -- to parlay those 35 players into a 165 or so game days. Water into wine, indeed.

But that doesn't mean the feat of 30 PRA/g is impossible. Consider: For any Challenger lucky enough to have picked Brandon Jennings on 11/14 -- that is, the night of his 130 PRA explosion -- you would've regsitered over four nights' worth of 30 PRA performance. And while zero is the absolute lowest PRA one can record, it's not as if 60 PRA is the cap, meaning that the odd big night (such as Jennings') helps to supplement, as it were, the myriad 20-25 point nights that are more the rule than the exception in Pick One Challenge.

Frequently, then, we must choose players whom we know -- with some degree of certainty -- will not break the 30 PRA barrier. In fact, last week, this was the case with almost the entirety of my roster. Sure, maybe Chris Kaman was a pretty good bet to do so, but he's still not one of those 35 players in the 30+ territory.

Here are my picks from last week, complete with PWN -- that is, their Picking Winners Number, which I covered in an earlier post:

It took a colossal basketball fail by Ty Lawson just to bring this week down to average. But even then, there were a number of successes. Lewis, Felton, Bogut: all posted PRAs more than 29% higher than their respective season averages. Not a single one of those players averaged 30 PRA/g entering the week, and yet, each of them is probably the sort of player who needs to be picked at least once over the course of a long, arduous season. The important thing is that we pick these more pedestrian players with something like logic, so's to maximize the returns we get from our investments in them. (Even the Lawson pick made sense in theory, for criminy sake: He was making his first career start and Chauncey Billups was out!)

In conclusion, did I have any big PRAs last week? No. Was the week a failure for that reason? Absolutely not.

Now for this week's picks:

Date: Monday, December 21, 2009
Player: Derrick Rose - CHI
Opposition: vs Sacramento
2009-2010 Averages: 17.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 5.6 APG (25.7 PRA)
General Thoughts: Point to the One: Of all the teams playing tonight, the Kings have the wackest* defense. Point to the Two: The Bulls are playing the Kings tonight. Point to the Three: Derrick Rose is the only Chicago player I have left who's worth anything close to a damn. Now, that'll change when Tyrus Thomas returns, but for now it's true, as I've already used Deng, Salmons, and Gibson. Oh, and one note to all the people picking Hansbrough: I think it makes sense at some level, but Granger will be out for about another month and Psycho T is only likely to improve in the interim.

*Yeah, that's right, I said "wackest."

Date: Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Player: O.J. Mayo - MEM
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 17.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.9 APG (24.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: So many Grizzlies, so little time. I mean, seriously, all of the following are worth a pick at some point this season: Zach Randolph (30.7), Rudy Gay (27.7), Marc Gasol (26.6), O.J. Mayo (24.2). Depending on how things work out, you could add Sam Young (20.0) and Mike Conley (16.3) to that list, too. Conveniently, I've picked exactly none of them so far. A couple things to consider: (1) Gay is dealing with an ankle situation, and (2) coaches are sometimes hesitant to play true big men (i.e. Gasol) against the small lineups of Golden State. Either Randolph or Mayo make sense, in that case. I'm going with Mayo with the idea that he might -- and only might -- pick up some of Gay's touches.

Date: Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Player: Peja Stojakovic - NOR
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 16.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.4 APG (25.7 PRA)
General Thoughts: Another team playing Golden State, another ideal Pick One matchup. I don't know where you're at, but I've already picked Chris Paul. One might think that the obvious choice is Nawlins' second most productive PRA-er David West, but as of Sunday afternoon, he's posted PRAs of 21, 45, and 15 in his previous three games. That's quite a range and hardly inspirational. I considered taking Peja Stojakovic, but, surprisingly, Golden State is actually middle-of-the-pack in terms of three-pointers allowed -- a.k.a. Peja's only remaining skill. So, West it is.

Date: Friday, December 25, 2009
Player: Dorell Wright - MIA
Opposition: at New York
2009-2010 Averages: 4.3 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 APG (7.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: I can say with some certainty that, if you'd have asked me at the beginning of the season who I'd be picking for the big Christmas Day set, my answer would not have been "Dorell Wright, for shizzle." And yet, here we are, and here he is. Here's why picking Wright isn't actually that crazy: As of Sunday afternoon, he'd netted a 19+ PRA in four of his five previous games. He's not gonna rack up a ton o' assists, but he can score inside and out, and he's got solid rebounding numbers, too. I'll add that I actually still have Dwayne Wade available, but on account of he's got like 67 injuries, I'm gonna wait a bit on him.

Date: Saturday, December 26, 2009
Player: Monta Ellis - GS
Opposition: vs Phoenix
2009-2010 Averages: 24.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.1 APG (34.1 PRA)
General Thoughts: The only problem with the Golden State Warriors -- from a Pick One perspective, at least -- is that they can't play themselves. So the Challenger has to find the next best thing -- a.k.a. the New York Knicks. Well, Golden State isnt' actually playing New York tonight, but they are playing Phoenix and Phoenix is allowing only 0.2 fewer PPG than New York. Ellis is a could pick, too, on account of Don Nelson currently has him playing like 73 minutes per game. Impossible? Yes. True? Definitely.

Date: Sunday, December 27, 2009   
Player: Charlie Villanueva - DET
Opposition: at Toronto
2009-2010 Averages: 15.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 0.8 APG (21.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: I really want to pick a Piston for tonight, on account of Toronto allows a second-worst 108.1 PPG, but it's hard to figure out which one to choose. I, personally, have Villanueva, Hamilton, Prince, Bynum, and Gordon all still remaining. Any of them would be fine in the right scenario, but each of them -- without exception -- is dealing with some type of injury. For now, Villanueva appears to be the least unhealthy: Despite a bout of plantar fasciitis, he's still playing reasonable minutes. Voila!

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