Fantasy Blogs  |  Pick One Challenge  |  

Regardless of your faith tradition (or lack thereof), you've most likely found yourself exchanging gifts -- at some point, with someone -- over the past week or so. Co-workers, family, friends, maybe even that creepy guy you ride the bus with: if ever you're going to reach out, the Holidays (capital H) are the time to do it.

On account of I'm Italian, have a big family, and have recently gotten married (which has, in effect, doubled my family), there are number of people for whom I've bought presents this season. But what I realized last week, as I was reflecting on my Pick One activities, is that I hadn't gotten anything for the thousands of Challengers alongside whom, week in and week out, I toil in the quest for Pick one glory. So I says to myself, I says: "What could I possibly get all these thousands that would be worthy of such a sacred bond?"

There are, of course, too many Challengers to get everyone his or her own gift. Mind you, it's not money that's the problem -- as you've probably guessed by now, the job of Pick One Expert pays the big money. No, it's the logistics: all those addresses, all those oddly spelled surnames, all that time. I mean, yes, I'm generous, but I'm also busy to the max.

So it was that, after considerable soul-searching on the matter, I came upon a happy resolution: I will give you the gift of Basketball Monster.

Because you're a Challenger, there's a pretty good chance that you also participate in other fantasy basketball leagues. If that's the case and you haven't heard of Basketball Monster, then oh man. What the Monster does is to look at each category for every player and calculate how many standard deviations from normal each player is. Average up the standard deviations for each cat, and there's the overall quality of said player. It's totally customizable, and even better: it's totally free*.

*Although, if you want, they do offer even sweeter features for a small fee.

Another cool thing the Monster offers is an Ease Rankings page. This tells you to what degree each potential opponent gives up certain categories, be it three-pointers, blocks, or field goal percentage. Nor is such a feature only helpful for eight- or nine-cat fantasy leagues; it's also super useful for Pick One Challenge. Just isolate the categories relevant to our fair game, and voila, you have the Pick One Ease Rankings.

Here are the Pick One Ease Rankings as of Sunday, December 27:

According to Ken Slight, the proprietor of Basketball Monster, the above values are calculated by standard deviations from the mean. So, to figure out team points allowed, you'd do something like this:

Team ptsV = (team pts allowed per game - avg pts allowed per game all teams) / stdev(pts allowed per game all teams)

Thus, because they have a ptsV of 2.09, that means that Golden State is 2.09 standard deviations above the mean for points allowed. That verifies what most of us probably suspected: that Golden State is a good Pick One matchup. Why Toronto is only 0.40 standard deviations above the mean -- this while allowing 106.2 PPG -- that's a little bit of a mystery to me. Maybe the Monster just counts regulation time? Maybe some other reason? Anyway, enough of the content in that table is makes sense to consider it at least a viable reference while planning scoping out good Pick One matchups.

So, uh, Merry Happy, everyone.

And as long as we're gift-giving, here's another something for ya: this week's picks...

Date: Monday, December 28, 2009
Player: Ray Allen - BOS
Opposition: at Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 16.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.9 APG (22.3 PRA)
General Thoughts: Paul Pierce is currently out, and while recent reports suggest that he might return more quickly than the two weeks that were originally suspected, it's a virtual certainty that he'll be gone for tonight's contest in Cali. Coach Doc Rivers has inserted Tony Allen into Pierce's starting spot. He's a fine player, but he's not a great scorer. As a result, Ray Ray will be expected to burden more of the scoring load than usual. Something like 26-30 PRA is probably a good guess.

Date: Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Player: Lamar Odom - LAL
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 8.7 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.5 APG (20.7 PRA)
General Thoughts: Odom got some extra run this past Saturday in LA's double-overtime victory versus Sacramento. That was partially because of the length of the game, obviously, but is was also due to the fact that Tru Warier Ron Artest was out while recovering from a concussion. If everything worked out the way it was supposed to, Artest returned last night at Phoenix. Still, I'm hoping that Coach Jackson will see fit to re-introduce Artest back to the team slowly, this making Odom a good play tonight. I'm thinking 23-25 PRA would be a success.

Date: Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Player: Yi Jianlian - NJN
Opposition: vs New York
2009-2010 Averages: 13.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 0.3 APG (20.7 PRA)
General Thoughts: Here's a situation where Basketball Monster's Ease Rankings are of some service. Tonight, New Jersey plays home versus the Knicks. I know the Knicks are a good Pick One matchup. But I have both Devin Harris and Yi (recently returned from injury) available. Who should I pick? Well, if I look at said Ease Ranking, I see that New York is particularly weak with points and rebounds allowed, but they're about league average with assists. Part of Harris's value comes from assists. Yi? Not so much.

Date: Thursday, December 31, 2009
Player: Baron Davis - LAC
Opposition: vs Philadephia
2009-2010 Averages: 16.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 7.6 APG (27.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: Pop quiz: What's different about this pick than the six other ones I'm making this week? Give up? Here's the answer: Davis is the only player I've chosen whose team isn't facing either New York or Golden State. No, instead the Clippers play host to Philadelphia, the third-worst team by Basketball Monster's Ease Rankings. Philly's particularly sensitive to allowing points and assists, it seems. That makes Davis a natural choice.

Date: Friday, January 1, 2010
Player: Al Horford - ATL
Opposition: vs New York
2009-2010 Averages: 14.0 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 2.1 APG (26.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: It's a limited slate of games tonight, but, as my little league coach used to say, "It only takes one, Carson." The "one" in question is the Atlanta-New York matchup going down in the Dirty South. It appears as though Ye Olde Challengers aren't blind to this fact, either, as A. Horford (18%), J. Crawford (17%), J. Johnson (8%), and J. Smith (8%) occupy the top four spots. I'm going with Horford. As I mentioned in re Wednesday's matchup, New York allows only a league-average number of assists while allowing a particularly large number of points and rebounds. Voila, Horford.

Date: Saturday, January 2, 2010
Player: Brandon Roy - POR
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 22.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 5.0 APG (31.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: Tonight marks the second consecutive night with a mostly self-evident matchup. Personally, I have both Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge still available, and with the way that injuries have dogged Portland's roster this season (just ask Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, and Travis Outlaw), I'm inclined to play both of them soon rather than later. I'm picking Roy, because he's more valuable.

Date: Sunday, January 3, 2010
Player: Troy Murphy - IND
Opposition: at New York
2009-2010 Averages: 13.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.0 APG (24.8 PRA)
General Thoughts: Though I will have written this note a full week ago by the time you read it, my guess is that, in your strange, futuristic world, both Danny Granger and Jeff Foster are still injured. Danny Granger played last on December 5th. In the 10 games after that, Murphy upped his Pick One production, averaging 30.9 PRA. Against New York that should improve, too -- say till about 33 or 34 PRA. I'd be happy with that.

The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.