The Nets are jerks (and other observations).
Mitch Hedberg -- may he rest in peace -- tells (told?) one of my favorite jokes that I've ever heard. It goes something like this (although certainly not exactly like this): "Some hotels don't have 13th floors because of superstition. But people on the 14th floor, you know what floor you're really on. Jump out the window of the 13th floor and you will die earlier."
It's generally recognized that the number 13 is unlucky. I don't pretend to understand why that's the case; it just is. And even though I, Carson Cistulli, am probably the opposite of superstitious, I feel like maybe I've recently been oppressed by the cruelest of cruel fates. By which I mean to say, I think Week 13 -- merely because it has the number 13 in it -- decided to oppress my soul.
You want proof? Fine. Here are four of my seven picks from last week (with average PRA in parentheses):
Varejao, 13 PRA (17.3 PRA), 0.751 PWN
Harris, 7 PRA (24.4 PRA), 0.287 PWN
Stoudemire, 21 PRA (30.5 PRA), 0.689 PWN
Turkoglu, 16 PRA (21.5 PRA), 0.744 PWN
I think I've made it pretty clear by means of my previous posts in these pages: I'm a man of science. As a man of science, I sing the power and glory of things like "random distribution" and "sample size." Obviously, either could explain my poor showing last week. I mean, come on: Devin Harris netting a 7 PRA?!? Amar'e Stoudemire with a 21 PRA?!? What's the dizzy here, friends?
So, yeah, I fully concede that my poor showing last week is likely a product of chance. Of course, that's the only logical explanation.
But forgive me if I'm the teeniest, tiniest bit suspicious that maybe -- maybe -- the spectre of 13 had something to do with my poor showing last week.
Believe me, I hear what you're saying: "Cisulli, you're a total wack-job. Obviously, the number 13 has little-to-no influence over something so trifling as our Pick One decisions." N'doy. You're obviously right. But perhaps you've not considered one of life's great truths: Carson Cistulli is never, ever wrong.
The alternative, of course, is that my sub-par performance is the product of random variation. In fact, that's almost definitely the case. And if it's true, then perhaps you and me and everyone we know have just learned an important lesson -- i.e. that bad things happen to good -- or, in my case, excellent -- people.
But even if that's the case, there's something equally real at play in this situation: that I -- that we, probably -- often refuse to accept chance as a sufficient explanation for our poor performances. We say, "Oh gosh, what have I done wrong?!?" Or we say: "The Nets spited me on purpose!"
Of course, it's entirely possible that the Nets have actually spited you on purpose. When you've won only, like, one and a half games on the season, you're apt to look for other pleasures. But the larger point remains: chance is sometimes a biatch. (I'd say "excuse my French" but I'm pretty sure that "biatch" isn't French at all.) I'm trying to deal with it this week. For you -- maybe it'll be a different week. Or, if you're lucky, it'll be zero weeks at all.
In the meantime, for your amusement, my picks for the week:
Date: Monday, January 25, 2010
Player: Martell Webster - POR
Opposition: vs New Orleans
2009-2010 Averages: 11.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 0.7 APG (15.8 PRA)
General Thoughts: While there are no guarantees in the Challenge, it's generally a pretty good sign when a guy is basically averaging 48 minutes per game of playing time. With both Brandon Roy (hamstring) and Jerryd Bayless (ankle) unlikely to take the court tonight, Webster is sure to get some pretty serious run. Coming off a game in which recorded a career-high in points (28 at Detroit), there's probably no better time to pick the Portland forward. Aldridge is a Hot Pick tonight, and he's also a good selection with a thin Portland front court.
Date: Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Player: Al Jefferson - MIN
Opposition: at New York
2009-2010 Averages: 18.2 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 2.0 APG (29.8 PRA)
General Thoughts: I'm of two or three minds this evening. I like Golden State's Anthony Tolliver or Cartier Martin, on account of both have been getting reasonable minutes lately, which is more than you could've said of either a month ago. Then again, Kevin Love and Al Jefferson each make decent plays at the Knicks. Carlos Delfino has also been tearing it up recently. So why Jefferson? Just because the matchup is too sweet not to use one of Minnesota's big men. It's kinda a toss-up which to take, but Love was recently out with illness, so I'll take Jefferson.
Date: Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Player: Carlos Delfino - MIL
Opposition: vs Philadelphia
2009-2010 Averages: 9.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.3 APG (19.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: As I mentioned yesterday, I was pretty eager to use Delfino at some point this week, as the Argentine has become a pretty big part of the Milwaukee rotation -- especially since Redd's season-ending injury. In his four most recent games before this week, Delfino averaged a Pick One line of 16.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, and 3.5 APG -- good for 29.3 PRA. That's a 10 PRA improvement per game over his season average and pretty close to the magic 30 PRA mark.
Date: Thursday, January 28, 2010
Player: Robin Lopez - PHO
Opposition: vs Dallas
2009-2010 Averages:
General Thoughts: Just as I couldn't resist playing either Al Jefferson or Kevin Love at New York a couple days ago, either Andrea Bargnani or -- in particular -- Chris Bosh make a sweet flippin play tonight at Madison Square Garden. And I'd pick them, if it weren't for the recent emergence of Phoenix center Robin Lopez. After deferring to Channing Frye up until now, Lopez has seized the starting role. Conveniently, Dallas enforcer Erick Dampier has been harassed by injury of late, thus creating an opportunity for Lopez to rule the boards.
Date: Friday, January 29, 2010
Player: Anthony Tolliver - GS
Opposition: vs Charlotte
2009-2010 Averages: 8.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.6 APG (15.4 PRA)
General Thoughts: Okay, I gave up my opportunity to play either Tolliver or Cartier Martin earlier this week, but I feel like I should speak now or forever hold my peace. Now, Charlotte's not exactly an ideal Pick One opponent -- in fact, they have a league-best Opponent PPG average of 92.8 -- but as I'm tasked with making these picks on the previous Sunday and feel uncomfortable speculating on Tolliver's playing time beyond this date, I'm going with the D-League Dominator. At least Tolliver's value is more highly tied to rebounding where Charlotte isn't quite as dominant; so that's something.
Date: Saturday, January 30, 2010
Player: Brendan Haywood - WAS
Opposition: vs New York
2009-2010 Averages: 9.8 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 0.4 APG (20.8 PRA)
General Thoughts: The Wisdom of the Crowd philosophy applies tonight: as of Sunday night (when I made this pick), Haywood let all picks at 13%, almost doubling teammate and second-most picked Caron Butler (at a distant 7% mark). The thinking here is obvious, but because I'm paid big money to state it, I will: New York allows a lot of points and even more rebounds. Haywood gets some of the former and leads Washington in the latter. Voila!
Date: Sunday, January 31, 2010
Player: Kevin Love - MIN
Opposition: vs New York
2009-2010 Averages: 15.2 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 2.7 APG (30.1 PRA)
General Thoughts: Blurg. For how difficult some days can be in the Challenge, there are other days -- like this one -- that feature almost an excess of choices. Here's a question: On how many different game days do the Warriors, the Knicks, and the Sixers all play away? I'm too lazy to try and answer the question, but here's my wild guess: not that many. The tiebreaker here is that, while OKC has a couple more games versus Golden State, this is it for the vaunted Minnesota/New York rivalry.
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