Three players with Pick One relevance this week.
A couple weeks ago, I suggested that, for the duration of the Pick One season, it might be best to use this space less for the sort of idle musing that has frequently occupied it and more for serious, straightforward analysis.
With that in mind, below are three players of interest to the Challenger for the time being. For each player, I've included both the season averages and those from the most recent week.
Player: Darren Collison
Averages (Season / Last Week): 34.4 / 69.6
General Thoughts: Collison's rookie status, and the bonus that comes with it, has already made him somehwat of a Pick One commodity, as his 30+ PRA suggests. But Collison's playing time has increased dramatically of late, and his Pick One value with it. In November, December, and January, Collison averaged 23:36, 14:54, and 15:30 minutes per game, respectively. In February, he averaged 41:42, playing 40+ minutes in his last 11 games. In his most recent game, he scored 33 points while recording three rebounds and three assists -- good for a 78 PRA. Franchise player Chris Paul is less than two weeks away from return, so it's best to play Collison sooner than later.
Player: Drew Gooden
Averages (Season / Last Week): 17.1 / 26.5
General Thoughts: Gooden is currently playing on his third team of the season, having been sent from Dallas to Washington in the deal that sent Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood the other way and then to the Clippers just days later for Al Thornton (a deal that also sent Antawn Jamison to Cleveland). The early returns -- and granted, it's only four games -- are great. After averaging just a hair over 22 minutes with Dallas, Gooden has played 32 minutes per game with L.A. In those four games he's averaged 15.5. PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 1.3 APG, good for a 26.6 PRA. With Marcus Camby gone and DeAndre Jordan seemingly unprepared to take over a starting role, Gooden looks like a good pick for the duration of the season.
Player: C.J. Watson
Averages (Season / Last Week): 15.2 / 26.7
General Thoughts: Of course, with Don Nelson in charge, nothing is certain, but it does appear as though Watson has more or less secured a role in the Golden State rotation. Watson averaged four more points in February than the next closest month (15.3, versus 11.1 in December), the increase in production likely coming from Monta Ellis's inability to overcome a sore back. As a result, Watson's value is tied to Ellis's health status. Translation: if Ellis is a no-go at any point this week or beyond, Watson's a good bet to pick up the points that Ellis leaves behind.
One further note: with his recent DUI, Al Jefferson is unlikely to play at least for the following week. In his absence, it's possible that new acquisition, the infamous Darko Milicic, might actually find his way into a decent-sized role. Exactly what that'll look like is tough to say, but the T-Wolves seem determined to coax Milicic into staying with the team, despite the latter's intentions to return to Europe. Be prepared, is all.
On to the picks:
Date: Monday, March 01, 2010
Player: Jermain Taylor - HOU
Opposition: vs Toronto
2009-2010 Averages: 2.9 PPG, 0.9 RPG, 0.2 APG (8.1 PRA)
General Thoughts: I'm a little bit surprised to see that LeBron James is the early leader among today's most-picked players. Surprised, that is, not because it's a bad pick, but rather because here we are, with only six or so weeks to go, and some Challengers have as yet to pick LeBron. For those of us without King James remaining, the choice is more difficult. I'mma try out Jermaine Taylor. He got the most minutes of any Houston bench player in their most recent game. Plus, with the likely absence of Trevor Ariza -- that, and the rookie bonus -- he could see something around 20-25 PRA.
Date: Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Player: Dwyane Wade - MIA
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 26.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 6.4 APG (37.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: The story here is not that Wade is healthy-ish again, nor that he's got a sweet match-up against Golden State. No, the real news is that I -- just now -- I learned how to spell Dwyane Wade's name. Seriously, look at it closely: D-w-y-a-n-e. That's crazy, that Y before the A. The other crazy thing is how many points Wade will score against the Warriors. I'm guessing about a hundred. Seems reasonable.
Date: Wenesday, March 03, 2010
Player: Vince Carter - ORL
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 16.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.9 APG (23.5 PRA)
General Thoughts: Vince Carter is shooting 40.6% from the floor through 52 games this season. That's not so good. But hold on there, friends: through 11 February games, Carter has been a new man, shooting at 50.3%. Small sample size? Maybe. But in Week 19, that's something, at least. If you've used every last Magician, consider going with Darko Milicic. Al Jefferson was arresticated for driving under the influence, which could open up real minutes for the giant Serbian.
Date: Thursday, March 04, 2010
Player: Mehmet Okur - UTA
Opposition: at Phoenix
2009-2010 Averages: 12.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 APG (20.7 PRA)
General Thoughts: The Suns' recent-ish move to replace Channing Frye in the starting lineup with Robin Lopez seems to be paying dividends. In the two games before the beginning of this week, Lopez first posted a 30-point and then a 5-block game. That's good for Lopez and the Suns. The thing I'm counting on for tonight, though -- beyond the Suns' general proclivity for allowing points -- is Memo's ability to create match-up problems with his outside shooting. Neither Amar'e Stoudemire nor Lopez himself are what you'd call perimeter defenders.
Date: Friday, March 05, 2010
Player: Josh Smith - ATL
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 15.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 4.1 APG (28.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: I've been pretty conservative with my Hawks this season. I only just picked Joe Johnson last week and still have Marvin Williams and Mike Bibby remaining. Those last two guys aren't super-duper, but rosterable in the right situation. Smith doesn't really need an ideal match-up to net 25 or 30 PRA -- but he's gonna get it tonight, anyway. My conservative estimate for tonight is ca 33-35 PRA. My optimistic one is 700. I wonder which'll be closer.
Date: Saturday, March 06, 2010
Player: Stephen Jackson - CHA
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 21.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.9 APG (29.9 PRA)
General Thoughts: I don't know if I'd want Stephen Jackson to be on my team, but he seems like a guy who legitimately cares about basketball and winning games. Which is to say, he doesn't seem to need any other incentive beyond that presented by the game itself. Well, he may not need any additional incentive to play hard, but he's getting it tonight. Jackson and his new Bobcat friends play host to the Golden State Warriors and Coach Don Nelson, who butted heads with Jackson previous to Jackson's departure. The latter will want to remind the Warriors what they're missing.
Date: Sunday, March 07, 2010
Player: Jrue Holiday - PHI
Opposition: at Toronto
2009-2010 Averages: 5.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.7 APG (21.3 PRA)
General Thoughts: Allen Iverson has been absent from the Sixers for over a week now and is out indefinitely to care for his sick daughter. That's the Real World. In Pick One World, Jrue Holiday has benefited from Iverson's absence. He's averaged 29 minutes per game over his last three contests and is scoring about 10 points per game to go along with four or so assists. That's not great shakes, but not so bad with the rookie bonus.
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