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Since three or four weeks ago, when I altered the format of the Pick One blog from its original irreverant, laugh-a-minute situation to the current more closely researched, less meandering one, there's been a pretty sweeping change in your So-Called Expert's Pick One results. A month ago now, I was ranked somewhere in the low-2000s, and bordering on the 90th percentile. As I write these words, though, I find myself ranked 605th overall and in the 97th percentile. The reason? Very probably luck. But taking a more thorough look at the week's options -- and recent excellent performances from unlikely sources -- has definitely helped me approach the coming week in a more organized, more efficient manner.

This week poses some challenges. Thursday, as always, is tough: for me, it came down to Brad Miller and Trevor Ariza, neither of whom were playing a Golden State-type opponent. Even worse for the Challenger is the baleful Saturday lineup. Dallas plays Golden State, which you'd think would create some kind of opportunity, but, alas, nothing seems so hot about it. I'm going with Ariza then after picking Miller for the aforementioned Thursday.


NOTABLE RECENT PERFORMANCES

Player: Hasheem Thabeet - MEM
Season Average / Last Week (Games): 12.2 / 32.7 (3)
General Thoughts: As of Sunday, Thabeet has started the lsat three games at center for Memphis in place of the injured Marc Gasol. Besides a foul-plagued, 12-minute showing versus Golden State, Thabeet has been in line for almost 30 minutes per game -- which, for a player with the rookie bonus, is like candy for the Challenger. The good news (from a Pick One perspective, at least) is that the Grizzlies are being careful with Gasol. That means Thabeet could be seeing more starter-type minutes this week.

Player: DaJuan Summers - DET
Season Average / Last Week (Games):  4.7 / 30.0 (2)
General Thoughts: Summers started the second half of Detroit's March 15th game at Boston after small forward Tayshaun Prince left with an injury. Summers received a DNP the next night against Cleveland, but then received 16 minutes at Indiana -- including all of an impressive fourth quarter that saw the Pistons claw back after starting the quarter down by 17. That said, his playing time is spotty enough that he's a bit of a risky play.

Player: Darko Milicic - MIN
Season Average / Last Week (Games): 10.2 / 17.7 (3)
General Thoughts: No, 17.7 isn't really an acceptable Pick One tally, but 31 is and that happens to be the amount that Milicic produced in his last game of the week, a March 19th contest at the Lakers. The bad news is that he left that game late in the fourth quarter with back spasms. If he's healthy, he's an interesting play right now, as the T-Wolves are dedicated to giving him a try-out ahead of their offseason player personnel decisions.

Player: Jamal Crawford - ATL
Season Average / Last Week (Games): 23.2 / 29.3 (3)
General Thoughts: He hasn't demonstrated the same sort of large spike as some other guys on this list, but for someone who's played in the league for so long -- that, and despite not receiving the benefit of the rookie bonus -- Crawford's done excellent work of late. The difference between last week's average of 29.3 and his season-long average of 23.2 is the difference between an excellent and only mediocre Pick One draw.
 
Player: Manu Ginobili - SAS
Season Average / Last Week (Games): 23.5 / 29.3 (4)
General Thoughts: One could say almost the exact same thing about Ginobili as Crawford, in that he's a veteran player who saw a spike in PRA last week. The only difference is that Ginobili's improvement is largely due to the absence of teammate Tony Parker. Entering this week, the Argentine has started seven consecutive games -- out of the eight he's made overall on the season. He's a good play until Tony Parker returns in mid-April or thereabouts.


RECENT INJURIES

Player: Andruw Bynum
Injury: Achilles
Return: Early April
Key Beneficiaries: Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol

Player: Luol Deng
Injury: Calf (Reinjured)
Return: Two Weeks
Key Beneficiaries: James Johnson

Player: Thaddeus Young
Injury: Thumb
Return: One Week
Key Beneficiaries: Willie Green, Rodney Carney


NOTHING BUT THE PICKS

Date: Monday, March 22, 2010
Player: Hasheem Thabeet - MEM
Opposition: at Sacramento
2009-2010 Averages: 2.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 0.1 APG (12.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: This pick will only be a success if the injured Marc Gasol remains injured. If he does -- and it's appearing likely right now -- then Thabeet is a go tonight. Except for a foul-shortened game against Golden State in his last outing, the center has been looking at something like 25-30 minutes in Gasol's absence. With his rebounding prowess and the benefit of the rookie bonus, he could very easily record something like 25-30 PRA.

Date: Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Player: Jason Maxiell - DET
Opposition: vs Indiana
2009-2010 Averages: 6.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 0.5 (12.3 PRA)
General Thoughts: Prior to March 19th's match-up at Indiana, Maxiell had recorded five straight double-doubles. The reason for his success in those five games is almost wholly due to the absence of center Ben Wallace. Wallace returned March 19th, and so did a drop in Maxiell's court time from about 33-35 MPG to 27 minutes. Well, the good news for Maxiell and the Challengers who haven't used him is that Ben Wallace didn't play in Sunday's contest with Cleveland. That'll probably hold true for tonight's contest, as well.

Date: Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Player: Sam Young - MEM
Opposition: at Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 7.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.6 APG (20.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: In the event that the Challenger hadn't noticed, I've picked like a hundred rookies in the past two weeks. Well, there's no need for that trend to end this evening, as Memphis visits the Bay Area. Like other rookies, Sam Young doesn't need to play too many minutes or put up too many shots to provide Pick One production. Even so, with all the possessions that typically occur during the course of an average Golden State game, there should be no shortage of opportunities to throw up a 25 or 30 PRA line.

Date: Thursday, March 25, 2010
Player: Brad Miller - CHI
Opposition: vs Miami
2009-2010 Averages: 8.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.8 APG (14.9 PRA)
General Thoughts: Ick. Ick. Ick. Ick. Ick. That's my basic reaction to tonight's slate of games and available players. I'm going with Miller with the idea that Noah's minutes are still limited and, despite his advanced age, Miller can still bring it in all three of the Pick One cats. If Noah has somehow gotten back above 10 or 15 minutes by tonight, I really have no ideas. Ick, indeed.

Date: Friday, March 26, 2010
Player: Grant Hill - PHO
Opposition: vs New York
2009-2010 Averages: 11.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.4 APG (19.4 PRA)
General Thoughts: Recently, while doing some reporting on baseball spring training in Phoenix, I had the privilege of attending a Phoenix Suns game. One thing that was both abundantly clear and also a little bit surprising about the experience was the revelation that Grant Hill, despite his advanced age and litany of injury past injury problems, is not only still good but still pretty flipping athletic. During the game in question he had two pretty resounding blocked shots where he just seemed to come outta nowhere. That sort of athleticism -- and his rebounding prowess, in general -- will serve him well against a Knicks team that's soft on the inside.

Date: Saturday, March 27, 2010
Player: Trevor Ariza - HOU
Opposition: v LA Lakers
2009-2010 Averages: 15.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG (24.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: Thursday night was no fun, but at least that's to be expected: Thursdays are notoriously bad. Saturdays, on the other hand, typically provide a pretty nice slate of games from which to choose. But between tonight's light schedule (only five games) and the simple fact that this is the 22nd week of the season, there aren't a lot of sweet picks tonight. I'm going with Ariza on the off chance that he'll somehow want to show the Lakers what they're missing out on. That's pretty speculative, though. Maybe between Sunday (when I made this pick) and today, there'll be some reason to pick someone from the Dallas-Golden State game. As of now, though, there's nothing there for me.

Date: Sunday, March 28, 2010
Player: Drew Gooden - LAC
Opposition: vs Golden State
2009-2010 Averages: 10.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 0.7 APG (18.3 PRA)
General Thoughts: Gooden's season line probably wouldn't be enough to warrant a Pick One play, but his play since joining the Clips (14.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.1 APG -- good for a 24.8 PRA), combined with a match-up against the largely hapless Warriors, suggests that he might be good for something close to 30 PRA. This late in the season, and with a player not receiving the rookie bonus, that's a pretty good deal.

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