This is the time of the NBA season that I call the Dog Days, when the excitement of the new season has passed but the playoffs still seem a long way away.
The NBA season is a marathon, which means that the players will not produce at the same level for the entire campaign. There will be peaks and valleys in everyone's performance, and in a league like the NBASE a savvy owner might be able to take advantage of this.
This is the time of the NBA season that I call the Dog Days, when the excitement of the new season has passed but the playoffs still seem a long way away. The ouchy injuries have started to accumulate, the holidays and New Year feel like a time to relax no matter what your profession, and the day-to-day of the season starts to grind until around the All Star Break when players get a chance to take a break and renew their energy. As such, there are always players that have a production dip around this time.
Veteran players in their thirties on teams that are pretty secure in their position will conserve energy where they can, which means guys like Kevin Garnett and Vince Carter might take a bit of a dip. Likewise, rookies that came out of the gates hard are starting to contend with the first rookie wall as they have already played the equivalent of a full NCAA season of a much more physically grueling game and their opponents now have their scouting reports on them. Brandon Jennings has already been grinding for awhile now, but Tyreke Evans is a bit of a short-term question mark as well. Finally, good players on terrible teams are having to mentally adapt to the fact that their teams are already in lottery mode before the new year even begins which could hurt the production of players like Devin Harris or even Derrick Rose if things don't turn around soon in Chicago.
Like the NBA season, the NBASE campaign is long as well. And little tricks like this can help you get a bit of separation between your squad and everyone else's.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending all of your budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
This week gave us the largest High Priced team (average cost $44.98) we've ever had with eight guys over the $35 threshold as Rajon Rondo and Kevin Durant snuck in with the other regulars. The Budget Crew (average cost $13.46), also eight members strong, scored right with the High Priced team based in large part on Zach Randolph (by-far the highest per-game NBASE average of the week) and Chris Paul (by-far the lowest per-game NBASE average among the High Priced guys). Randolph and Gilbert Arenas are on the Budget crew for the third week in a row, and even though Arenas was among the lower averages on this team he is still showing good consistency along with his explosiveness.
- Zach Randolph $15.63 (LeBron James $72.28)
- Corey Magette $6.16 (Kobe Bryant $60.87)
- Al Horford $14.68 (Carmelo Anthony $44.95)
- Troy Murphy $13.97 (Dwight Howard $40.21)
- Gilbert Arenas $17.15 (Dwyane Wade $35.66)
- Stephen Curry $11.05 (Chris Paul $35.52)
- Joakim Noah $14.63 (Kevin Durant $35.25)
- Russell Westbrook $14.42 (Rajon Rondo $35.11)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (12/28 - 1/3): In another holiday-influenced week there are only ten teams with four games this week (Bobcats, Cavaliers, Pacers, Lakers, Timberwolves, Knicks, Thunder, 76ers, Kings, Spurs). There are also two squads with only two games this week (Pistons, Clippers). Everyone else plays three times this week.
Daily Prospectors: There are three days this week with fewer than six games this week:
Thursday (1/31) five games: Bulls/Pistons, Mavericks/Rockets, Heat/Spurs, Jazz/Thunder, 76ers/Clippers
Friday (1/1) three games: Magic/Timberwolves, Knicks/Hawks, Kings/Lakers
Sunday (1/3) five games: Pacers/Knicks, Bobcats/Cavaliers, Spurs/Raptors, 76ers/Nuggets, Mavericks/Lakers
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday
Two games: Warriors, Lakers, Thunder, Wizards
Zero games: Mavericks, Clippers, Heat, Magic, Raptors, Jazz
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Hawks, Cavaliers, Pacers, Timberwolves, Hornets, Knicks
Zero games: Mavericks, Nuggets
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: Clippers, Heat, 76ers, Jazz
Zero games: Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, Wizards
Thursday/Friday
Two games: none
Zero games: Celtics, Bobcats, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Warriors, Pacers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Nets, Hornets, Suns, Trail Blazers, Raptors, Wizards
Friday/Saturday
Two games: Timberwolves, Magic, Kings
Zero games: Pistons, Clippers, 76ers
Saturday/Sunday
Two games: Bobcats, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pacers, Spurs, Raptors
Zero games: Hawks, Pistons, Clippers
Sunday/Monday
Two games: None
Zero games: Celtics, Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Grizzlies, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nets, Magic, Suns, Kings, Wizards
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Gerald Wallace ($21.56): Wallace was a bargain last week at $24 before he missed a game with migraine headaches and saw his price fall through the floor. His price still hasn't gotten back up even to where it was before, but his production is still right there with the best in the league.
Zach Randolph ($15.63): As mentioned above, Randolph was by-far the leading NBASE producer for the week and has been consistent all season as well beyond a nightly 20-10 threat.
Chris Kaman ($13.84): In his last five games, Kaman has three 20-10 efforts, a 29 and 7, and a 19 and 10. He just dominated a strong Celtics interior defense to the tune of 27 points and 12 boards, and with Marcus Camby ouchy Kaman should get a larger share of the interior defensive stats in the near future.
Corey Maggette ($6.16): Maggette has taken advantage of his move back into the starting line-up for the Warriors, posting seven straight 20-plus point games including a 33-point effort on only 17 shots in his last outing.
Jarrett Jack ($5.39): Jack is starting in place of the injured Jose Calderon, and over the last week he has averaged 15.3 points, 6.3 assists and 3.3 boards with only three turnovers total over those three games. He makes a decent short-term add until Calderon returns.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
