Owners favor the players generating MVP buzz, that they see all of the time on highlight shows, that are scoring lots of points every night... but not necessarily the players scoring the most NBASE points.
A couple of weeks ago I wrote about how Kobe Bryant was underperforming his price tag, and that owners should look more towards stats than star power when making their purchases. Since then Kobe has played great and his price tag has actually gone up, but he still has been consistently outperformed by guys like Zach Randolph who cost about $50 less. It just seemed to me that owners favor the players generating MVP buzz in the media, the players that they see all of the time on highlight shows, the players that are scoring lots of actual points every night... but not necessarily the players scoring the most NBASE points.
I noticed that phenomenon again this week, this time applying in opposite ways among players that are both among the higher priced players in the league. Carmelo Anthony is having an excellent season in real life, leading the Nuggets to one of the best records in the NBA while getting his name into the MVP debate as one of the leading scorers in the league. Anthony is consistently one of the three or four highest priced players on the NBASE trading floor, but in terms of NBASE points scored this season he is actually outside of the top 20. That might be skewed slightly by the two games that he missed this week, but even when playing his per game average is the same as a player like Brook Lopez who consistently sells for less than half of Melo's price tag.
Meanwhile, every week I write in the Team Building section about high-priced players whose production could be easily replicated at a lower cost. The two main exceptions to the 'easily replaceable' part over the past few seasons have been LeBron James and Chris Paul, who consistently go 1-2 in NBASE points scored by a significant margin over the third place guy but generally have price tags so high that it makes them impractical to buy. Not this year, though, as an early-season injury dropped Paul's price through the floor and it has yet to fully recover. Paul is actually selling for about half LeBron's price tag even though he is now healthy and their per-game NBASE scoring averages are the same.
While the injury did initially lower Paul's price, I think that part of the reason it is staying so low is that the Hornets aren't doing well as a team which is giving Paul a lower media profile than usual. Anthony's price tag is still higher than Paul's even though Anthony has missed the last two games, holding steady near $40 while Pau Gasol's price tag has dropped down to around $20 in one day after missing only a part of one game on Sunday. Bottom line: again, MVP votes don't matter in NBASE. Sportscenter highlights don't matter. All that matters are the numbers, so don't be fooled into paying big bucks for a big name guy when you could get better numbers in a smaller name for less money.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
This week we are back to a more normal five-man High Priced team (average cost $52.86), as three of last week's swollen crew have fallen back below the $35 threshold. As pointed out in the intro we also have an interesting phenomenon, where a High Priced guy like Chris Paul could actually be considered a bargain. So, if you WERE to want to spend the money on a guaranteed points bonanza Paul actually is a pretty good buy for the buck.
Zach Randolph and Gilbert Arenas are honorary co-captains of the Budget team (average cost $14.94), as each have been on the team for a solid month straight now. Arenas could lose his captaincy based upon the results of a certain investigation, but for as long as he is on the court he is holding steady as a big-time producer for less money. The team this week is once again big man heavy, as the power forwards and centers have a knack for producing strong stat lines while keeping their prices below $17.50. Even Randolph, who is definitely one of the top 5 NBASE scorers over the last month, has managed to stay below threshold. If you are looking for guards and swingmen, though, Rudy Gay ($13.93) and Russell Westbrook ($14.86) both could very easily have made this team based on their production and cost.
- Zach Randolph $17.33 (LeBron James $76.21)
- David West $11.54 (Kobe Bryant $65.73)
- Chris Kaman $13.90 (Dwight Howard $46.13)
- Nene $15.46 (Carmelo Anthony $38.69)
- Gilbert Arenas $16.47 (Chris Paul $37.55)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (1/4 - 1/10): There are 11 teams with four games this week (Hawks, Bulls, Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Nets, Hornets, Magic, Trail Blazers, Jazz and Wizards) and only one team with two games (Knicks). Everyone else plays three times this week.
Daily Prospectors: There are two days this week with fewer than six games:
Monday (1/4) four games: Hawks/Heat, Thunder/Bulls, Hornets/Jazz, Trail Blazers/Clippers
Thursday (1/7) one game: Bobcats/Knicks
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday
Two games: Bulls, Trail Blazers
Zero games: Celtics, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Knicks, Spurs, Raptors
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Grizzlies, Nets, Magic, Suns, Wizards
Zero games: Knicks
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: None
Zero games: Bulls, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pacers, Bucks, 76ers, Trail Blazers, Kings
Thursday/Friday
Two games: none
Zero games: Pistons, Rockets, Clippers, Thunder
Friday/Saturday
Two games: Hawks, Bulls, Mavericks, Nuggets, Paces, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Magic, 76ers, Kings, Jazz
Zero games: Clippers
Saturday/Sunday
Two games: None
Zero games: Warriors, Suns
Sunday/Monday
Two games: Celtics, Cavaliers, Heat, Bucks, Hornets, Raptors
Zero games: Bobcats, Mavericks, Rockets, Grizzlies, Magic, Kings
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on. This week we have a true "value" stocks section, as each of these players are less than $10 but have shown the ability to be as explosive as players with price tags four times as large.
Nate Robinson ($7.59): Krypto-Nate was in Coach Mike D'Antoni's doghouse for several weeks, racking up DNP-cds in the box score every night. Then last week D'Antoni let Robinson play in a game, and he exploded for 41 points, eight assists and six boards in 38 minutes of action. Of course he followed up that performance with a six-point stink bomb in his last game, but a player that cheap with that kind of scoring potential is worth at least monitoring if not taking a flyer upon.
Wilson Chandler ($7.58): Chandler has scored 23 or more points in three of his last four games, all Knick wins, and he is averaging 21 points, nine boards and three assists over the last week.
Anthony Randolph ($7.44): Randolph is averaging 13 points, nine boards, two assists, two blocks and a steal while shooting well from the field and not turning the ball over much in the last week. The catch? He is only playing 21 minutes per game, which makes his production frankly amazing but difficult to rely upon. If Warriors Coach Don Nelson ever truly commits to giving Randolph a consistent 35 minutes per night he could be a fantasy beast.
Ty Lawson ($5.44): Lawson has produced two consecutive 23-point/nine-assist performances as the starting point guard for the Nuggets in place of the injured Chauncey Billups. Billups is day-to-day, which means that at any time Lawson's run could come to an end, but for $5 he could give your team a nice short-term boost.
Omri Casspi ($5.32): Casspi is becoming a surprise impact player as a rookie and is coming off three straight 20-plus point performances. He has two double-doubles in his last five games, has hit at least one 3-pointer in 13 straight games, and is getting a decent number of assists, steals and blocks as well.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
