The whole unexpected gut-punch is very analogous to what we experience as fantasy owners.
I just met with my boss about a project that I've been working on. I thought that the project was going well, and with only four months left before the final due date I was having visions of getting to the finish line. It has been an extremely grueling project, much harder than was initially expected, but despite unforeseen complications and difficulties I had persevered and the end was in sight. I thought.
Instead, my boss informed me that the "unforeseen complications and difficulties" were potential deal-breakers, and oh-by-the-way I likely would have to re-do a good chunk of the work that I thought that I had taken care of in the previous months. Instead of nearing the finish line and needing to tweak, instead I have to re-do a lot of heavy lifting and I need not even think about being done.
I hate that.
But you know, the whole unexpected gut-punch is very analogous to what we experience as fantasy owners. How many times has your fantasy team been hit by unexpected injuries or trades that just wreck what you thought was a good squad? One of the benefits of the NBASE game is that one injury can't just derail your team like it can in standard fantasy basketball, but even still there are daily confounds that you constantly have to overcome.
Often, just when I have my team like I like it and I am planning to close the gap with the leaders, I will go through a week where most of my players have sparse schedules and their prices fall. Then, right during that week a couple of key guys get hurt which forces me to either sell them at a huge loss or try to wait it out but miss a lot of production. Then, if I sell at a loss I can't afford to buy players that were as good as the ones that got hurt and I fall further behind the leader. So while I may have entered the week with my eyes on the teams in front of me, by mid-week I am struggling just to not fall further behind as I have to re-plan and re-execute team building schemes that I thought were already done.
Exactly the same as what happened with my boss.
So, how did I recover from my bad meeting? Well, I took a few minutes in my office with my head down, then I called my wife, then I grabbed a snack…then I got back to work. At the end of the day, that's the important thing. In fantasy sports, as in life, bad things are going to happen that you weren't prepared for. But the key is to take your lump, take a minute to recover, then brush that dirt off your shoulders and get back to work. I'm already planning how to fix my project moving forward, and in four months I'm going to turn in a winner. I even used the negative of the meeting in a positive way for this article. Likewise, when the basketball injuries occur I already know that I can find some good bargains to get me through and keep my bottom line growing while I continue to close the gap on the leaders. To win in NBASE (or succeed on the job), perseverance and resiliency are the most important characteristics that an owner can have.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
This week LeBron James put some space between he and everyone else with a scoring average so high that it almost guaranteed that the High Priced Crew (average price $48.79) would outscore their Budget counterparts (average price $13.99). In fact, the only thing that kept the Budget crew in it was that Kobe Bryant again had such a down week (caveat: this was written on Sunday, before Bryant's monster game hit weekly stats).
The Budget Crew features two Golden State Warriors, but the expected Monta Ellis is absent due to a foot injury. He was replaced by rookie Stephen Curry, who stepped into his slot and put up big numbers. Every other one of the Budget guys have been listed in this space at least once this season, with Chauncey Billups and Corey Maggette both on here for the second week in a row.
- Stephen Curry $12.61 (Kobe Bryant $66.27)
- Brook Lopez $17.25 (LeBron James $64.64)
- Andrew Bogut $13.54 (Dwight Howard $41.18)
- Corey Maggette $10.43 (Dwyane Wade $41.77)
- Chauncey Billups $14.86 (Chris Paul $40.80)
- Marc Gasol $15.22 (Carmelo Anthony $38.08)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (1/25 - 1/31): This is another week when almost everyone plays four games (20 teams), but this week there are no teams that only play two. The teams with three games are the: Bulls, Mavericks, Pistons, Bucks, Nets, Thunder, Kings, Raptors, Jazz, and Wizards.
Daily Prospectors: There are two days this week with fewer than six games:
Tuesday (1/26) five games: Timberwolves/Knicks, Lakers/Wizards, Bucks/Mavericks, Bobcats/Suns, Warriors/Kings
Thursday (1/28) three games: Raptors/Knicks, Celtics/Magic, Mavericks/Suns
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday
Two games: Bobcats, Suns
Zero games: Pistons, Nets, Thunder, Raptors
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Warriors, Lakers, Bucks, Timberwolves
Zero games: Celtics, Magic
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: Raptors
Zero games: Bobcats, Kings, Wizards
Thursday/Friday
Two games: Celtics
Zero games: Bucks
Friday/Saturday
Two games: Hawks, Bobcats, Grizzlies, Heat, Hornets, Trail Blazers, Kings, Wizards
Zero games: Suns, Raptors
Saturday/Sunday
Two games: Knicks, Magic
Zero games: Bulls, Jazz
Sunday/Monday
Two games: Celtics, Nuggets, Lakers, Suns
Zero games: Hawks, Bulls
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Stephen Curry ($12.61): Curry has been pressed into increased duty by the sprained ankle of Monta Ellis, and he has responded by doing his best Ellis impersonation. Curry has averaged 23.2 points in 45.6 minutes of play over his last five games, and in the two games since Ellis has gone down Curry has averaged 28.5 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 boards, and 2.0 steals. Ellis is day-to-day, but while he's out Curry is a bargain.
Kenyon Martin ($10.74): Martin's seasons got jump-started a few weeks ago when Carmelo Anthony was injured, and even with Melo back Martin continues to shine. He averaged almost 15 points and 14 boards over the last week and has notched a double-double in nine of his last 11 games.
Corey Maggette ($10.43): Maggette has been producing at Carmelo/Kobe rates for awhile now, but no one seems to notice it. He is averaging 29 points on 57% shooting from the field for the month of January, while also kicking in 7.3 boards and 3.9 assists. The fact that you can still get him for about 10 bucks is really ridiculous.
Andre' Miller ($7.88): With Brandon Roy ouchy, Miller's (and to a lesser extent Martell Webster's) value has gone through the roofs. I watched Miller carve up Rajon Rondo to the tune of 28 points/eight assists/eight boards, and in his last five games he is averaging 20.8 points, 7.0 assists, 3.8 boards and 1.0 steals per game.
Carlos Delfino ($4.61): Delfino has really stepped up his game since Michael Redd went down for the year, and in the last five games he has either reached 20 points or double-digit rebounds in every game. Over that stretch he is averaging 18.8 points, 8.2 boards, 3.4 boards and 2.0 steals.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
