This week's article is a day later than usual because of a perfect storm of traveling, lack of internet access and inclement weather that prevented me returning from my trip. Over the past few days I got to experience the strange sensation of complete isolation. I had no idea how my team was doing beyond what I could glean from Sportscenter highlights and newspaper box scores, I didn't have the NBA League Pass like I do at home so I couldn't watch all of the games like I usually do, and I had no way to make changes to my team or line-up.
In short: it absolutely sucked.
Because of course, as soon as I get out of contact one of my key players (Chris Paul) hurts himself and is declared to be out "indefinitely". I saw that story this morning and could do nothing but laugh to myself and shake my head, because I knew that by the time I got to a computer Paul's value would be through the floor.
And of course it was.
I keep trying to find a silver lining in this one, but so far I haven't had any luck. Paul's value dropped $20 in two days, so now I'm pretty much forced to just sell him and eat the loss. Meanwhile, had I been around to sell him immediately I probably could have bought LeBron James (had I wanted to) with the extra money I had in my account. Instead, I will just be starting again with my bargain picks until I can build it back up…just like I talked about last week in the "unexpected gut punch" article.
Moral to the story? Stay connected. If you have to be out of contact with your team for a few days, try to talk a friend into keeping an eye on it for you. Or at the very least, give your wife your password and sweet talk her into logging on as you to make a quick add/drop in the case that your best player injures his knee. Do something to keep your team afloat, or else you end up submerged in the red like yours truly while trying to make up for lost time.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
Even without Paul (who had the highest scoring average of the week before hi sinjury), the high-priced crew (average price: $47.50) still outscored their lower priced bretheren (average price: $13.69) with Kevin Durant, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howards and LeBron James all in the top-5 scorers for the week. The Budget crew is helped by the fact that Carmelo Anthony somehow stays above the High-priced threshold even when he's injured and doesn't play at all, and Andrei Kirilenko's throwback week helped keep the price down for the cheaper squad. Like always, there is quality to be had for cheap if you keep up with the trends (Billups on here for third week in a row) and don't get suckered into overpaying for the biggest names.
- Stephen Curry $13.54 (Kobe Bryant $68.39)
- Joakim Noah $15.16 (LeBron James $61.83)
- Marc Gasol $17.37 (Dwight Howard $44.77)
- Chauncey Billups $15.74 (Dwyane Wade $46.22)
- Andrei Kirilenko $7.53 (Kevin Durant $39.88)
- Stephen Jackson $13.84 (Carmelo Anthony $36.26)
- David West $12.65 (Chris Bosh $35.15)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (2/2 - 2/7): In the remaining six days of the week, there are three teams with four games (Hawks, Bulls, Nets) and five more with only two games left (Bobcats, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Suns, Jazz).
Daily Prospectors: There are two days this week with fewer than six games:
Tuesday (2/4) two games: Heat/Cavaliers, Spurs/Trail Blazers
Sunday (2/6) two games: Kings/Raptors, Magic/Celtics
Back-to-back schedule:
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Hawks, Bulls, Warriors, Clippers, Nets, Thunder, Raptors
Zero games: Timberwolves
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: Heat, Trail Blazers, Spurs
Zero games: Pistons, Rockets, Pacers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Timberwolves, Magic
Thursday/Friday
Two games: None
Zero games: Bobcats, Warriors, Clippers, Thunder, Raptors, Jazz
Friday/Saturday
Two games: Hawks, Bulls, Nuggets, Pistons, Rockets, Pacers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nets, Hornets, Knicks, 76ers, Wizards
Zero games: Raptors
Saturday/Sunday
Two games: None
Zero games: Mavericks, Suns
Sunday/Monday
Two games: Magic
Zero games: everyone else except Celtics, Mavericks, Warriors, Lakers, Hornets, Kings, Spurs, Raptors
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Marc Gasol ($17.37): Gasol has two games of at least 25 points and12 boards in his last four outings, and also has seven blocks in his last two games.
Chauncey Billups ($15.74): Billups was already playing at a high level, but with Carmelo Anthony (ankle) sidelined he has upped his game to 23 points, 8.4 assists, 4.4 boards and 1.6 steals in his last five games.
Paul Millsap ($8.32): As always, with Carlos Boozer (calf) on the shelf Millsap becomes a beast. He has averaged 24 points, 11.7 boards, 3.7 assists and 2.0 blocks over his last three games and makes a great play until Boozer returns.
Andrei Kirilenko ($7.53): Kirilenko always seems to do better when Boozer is out and he can play more minutes at power forward. Over the last four games he has averaged 17 points, 6.7 boards, 2.5 blocks, 2.5 assists, and 2.0 steals. Just like old times for AK47, though this only lasts until Boozer returns.
Darren Collison ($7.66): Collison has averaged 16.5 points, 16 assists, and five assists in the last two games while starting in place of Chris Paul. With Paul out indefinitely, Collison definitely gets a huge boost.
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