Sunday morning I set my line-up, and in looking at the trading floor I was stunned to see Dwight Howard's price up over $60. As of last Tuesday he was only at about $44, and though he's been playing well he wasn't exactly setting the world on fire. He was also one of the highest price movers in the positive direction, and eventually I chalked it up to him being the best player on a sparse Super Bowl Sunday schedule. I didn't think that much about it at the time, though, I merely noted it as strange.
Late Sunday night I started writing this article, and I realized that the Magic are the only team in this All Star Break-shortened week that play three games. At that point I could have kicked myself, because I figured that THIS was why Howard's price had been so high and why he was such a big mover on Sunday. Starting Sunday, he was going to play four games in five days and would have two more games than any other superstar over that stretch. I regretted that I hadn't looked that far in the future last week, because I just knew that I had missed out. Surely his price would be even higher on Monday morning, when he still has more games left than anyone else... right?
Wrong. As I finish this article Monday morning, Howard is currently leading the price movers for the day, DOWN almost $4 since yesterday. I went ahead and bought him for his busy half-week, but this whole thing made me think about the "Beating the Market" section that I write every week.
Obviously, all three of the strategies that I highlight in that section are still in play. Clearly some people are planning for the week, because even after the Monday morning sell-off Howard is still up more than $10 from this time last week. Clearly, some of you really are focused on superstars that play on sparse days, since Howard's price did spike for the two-game schedule on Sunday. And finally, it is clear that many of you are focused on back-to-back schedules because that is the only explanation for why there would be a sell-off on Howard on a day when he plays more games in the next four days than anyone else.
For me, that's pretty cool. It means that the info in this article every week really should be enough to set you guys up for the week no matter what strategy you're using. This example also suggests that some of you might want to diversify your planning a bit, because it really just doesn't make sense to sell off a healthy stud player that has a full schedule of games. Especially since he has a Wednesday-Thursday back-to-back and will be playing on the next sparse primetime game on Thursday. If you want to maximize both profit and production, it would seem that Thursday after his next price spike would have been a better time to let Howard go. Just a thought.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
I always point out that it might be smarter to use your money on lower-priced players that are producing like the superstars, but even within the high-priced crew there are buys that are more intelligent than others. I feel like I keep harping on this, but it boggles my mind that Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony continue to keep such high prices. Kobe isn't among the top-10 NBASE point totals for the season, LeBron James has almost 50% more production than Kobe, Kobe is actually injured right now and could conceivably sit until the All Star Break... yet Kobe is still the highest priced player in the game. I completely don't get it.
Likewise, Melo is no longer even in the top-30 among NBASE point scorers, hasn't played in a game for more than two weeks with an ankle injury, yet when I check he is still a $35 player and on the high-priced list. If you guys are going to break the bank on a big budget player, at least with LeBron, Dwyane Wade or Dwight Howard you'd be getting a player that has out-produced everyone else and could put up numbers to almost justify the price tag. But Kobe and Melo? Sell already. Seriously.
That said, over the last week the high-priced crew (average price: $48.68) should have won the production battle in a landslide since LeBron and Chris Bosh separated themselves as the two best producers with Howard and Wade also strong. But, when you factor in Kobe's low average and Melo's goose-egg the budget players (average price: $12.66) win this one in a walk. And since the high-priced guys sport two walking wounded, I felt justified including the hobbling Chauncey Billups and his excellent average among the budget crew since he is likely to return as soon as Kobe or Melo.
- Russell Westbrook $14.65 (Kobe Bryant $66.38)
- Tyreke Evans $16.96 (LeBron James $63.77)
- Kenyon Martin $11.10 (Dwight Howard $61.19)
- Chauncey Billups $15.07 (Dwyane Wade $43.51)
- Caron Butler $8.63 (Kevin Durant $35.93)
- Stephen Jackson $13.77 (Carmelo Anthony $35.00)
- Andrei Kirilenko $8.46 (Chris Bosh $35.00)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (2/8 - 2/14): This is a short week because of the All Star break, so the Magic are the only team to play three games. Nine teams only have one game this week (Celtics, Rockets, Pacers, Grizzlies, Knicks, Thunder, Suns, Raptors, Wizards), and everyone else plays twice.
Daily Prospectors: There are two days this week with fewer than six games:
Monday (2/8) three games: Hornets/Magic, Mavericks/Warriors, Spurs/Lakers
Thursday (2/11) two games: Magic/Cavaliers, Spurs/Nuggets
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday
Two games: Mavericks
Zero games: Celtics, Suns, Raptors
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Hawks, Bobcats, Bulls, Pistons, Clippers, Heat, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nets, 76ers, Trail Blazers, Kings, Jazz
Zero games: Spurs
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: Magic
Zero games: Mavericks, Rockets, Pacers, Grizzlies, Knicks, Thunder, Wizards
All Star Break Friday through Tuesday
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Lamar Odom ($15.18): Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum are both limping right now, and if either or both sit until the break it moves Odom into the starting line-up, where he has been dominant this year. He is coming off of a career-high 22 rebounds on Saturday, and is a must start for the price if his teammates are out.
Caron Butler ($8.63): Butler has been a bit of a fantasy disappointment this season, but he has quietly picked up the pace in Washington and is one of the few bona fide star caliber players that you could buy for less than 10 bucks.
Kenyon Martin ($11.10): Martin has been playing well for awhile now, but it all started about a month ago when Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups were both out and someone had to step up. Well, Anthony and Billups are both out again, and Nene is limping as well. More production opportunity for Martin.
Ty Lawson ($5.15): The injuries also mean more opportunity for Lawson, who has shown repeatedly that he can put up star-caliber numbers when he starts. On Saturday he blew up again with Billups sidelined, and if Billups sits through the break then Lawson should finish this week strong as well.
Darren Collison ($8.10): Collison had two big games when Chris Paul first went down, but then he had a lesser game and it seems that some of you wrote him off. Well, he has picked it back up again and Paul is expected to be out at least a month. Collison is a bargain right now.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
