As I've written about the past few weeks, my team has been doing well of late as I've started following the advice that I give out in this article. I'm up to second in my league now, top 1600 overall, still rising. But despite that, it is very hard not to get impatient. I'm still way behind the leader with time running down, and it's hard to fight the urge to tinker, to go for the home run.
I've got LeBron James on my team, and this weekend I decided that I needed Dwyane Wade too. But I didn't want to trade LeBron. Which was a problem, because I was carrying a full roster and if I put $120 into just two players there wasn't very much left to go around for another nine guys.
But the thing is, despite what I write every week in the Team Building section, it is HARD to see LeBron and Wade putting up video game numbers without believing that I have to have that on my team. After all, I'm trying to catch up, right? How can I do that if I'm staying frugal, counting game limits and starting $15 players when the leader is getting LeBron's ridiculous performances?
The answer: trust the process. I'm not saying you shouldn't go after LeBron and/or Wade on your team…as I mention in this week's Team Building section, Wade is actually a good guy right now with his potential to explode down the stretch. But what I am saying is, know your finances and your situation. If you can't afford Wade without gutting your team, then for you he actually isn't a good buy.
Think of it like trying to run a mile. If you sprint every so often (LeBron, Wade) but then walk for a half-mile to catch your breath (leaving spots blank or going too far into the bargain bin) then in the end your mile will be much slower than if you just paced yourself and ran a consistent, but smart mile (maximizing production for your dollar). In the end, your team has to be more important than getting sexy numbers from any one player. Run your race, and don't worry about how anyone else is spending their money. Trust the process.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have separated themselves from the pack this week, though James' unexpected injury break on Saturday definitely hurt a lot of teams. James is already just about price-maxed, but Wade's cost is still down because of the week that he missed with the calf injury. So far it appears that Wade is about to embark on a late-season explosion similar to the way he went off last season, and if so he's actually still a good buy even though he's a High Priced Guy (average cost $50.07).
Despite the lack of a front-end superstar, the Budget Crew (average cost $13.50) did well in comparison to their higher priced cohorts because they almost uniformly produced very well. Stephen Curry is on the team again despite not even having that great of a week, but even his lesser games these days are very strong. Kevin Love is on here with a grain of salt, because last week Al Jefferson sat out and may have helped Love produce more.
- David West $12.98 (LeBron James $73.78)
- Darren Collison $12.92 (Kobe Bryant $60.33)
- Andrew Bogut $14.80 (Dwight Howard $53.10)
- Kevin Love $11.46 (Kevin Durant $45.00)
- Aaron Brooks $13.53 (Dwyane Wade $44.86)
- Luis Scola $12.47 (Carmelo Anthony $36.98)
- Stephen Curry $16.35 (Rajon Rondo, $36.47)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (3/8 - 3/14): Most of the league (16 teams) plays four games this week, with ten teams playing three times (Bulls, Cavaliers, Mavericks, Nuggets, Pistons, Warriors, pacers, Bucks, Thunder, Wizards). But four teams play only twice (Hawks, Rockets, Lakers, Suns) and should likely be avoided for the week.
Daily Prospectors: There are two days this week with fewer than six games:
Monday (3/8) five games: Mavericks/Timberwolves, Spurs/Cavaliers, Hawks/Knicks, Warriors/Hornets, Nets/Grizzlies
Thursday (3/4) three games: Hawks/Wizards, Bulls/Magic, Trail Blazers/Warriors
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday
Two games: None
Zero games: Nuggets, Pistons, Thunder, Suns
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Celtics, Bobcats, Clippers, Heat, 76ers, Kings, Raptors, Jazz
Zero games: Hawks, Cavaliers, Warriors, Suns
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: None
Zero games: Hawks, Cavaliers, Rockets, Pacers, Lakers, Bucks, Suns, Wizards
Thursday/Friday
Two games: Bulls, Trail Blazers
Zero games: Hawks, Mavericks, Rockets, Raptors
Friday/Saturday
Two games: Nuggets, Pistons, Clippers, Grizzlies, Nets, Knicks, Spurs, Wizards
Zero games: None
Saturday/Sunday
Two games: Magic, Raptors
Zero games: Bulls, Lakers
Sunday/Monday
Two games: Celtics, Hornets, 76ers, Jazz
Zero games: Hawks, Bulls, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Nets, Spurs
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Manu Ginobili ($10.88): Ginobili has been slowly ramping his game up anyway, but now that Tony Parker is out Ginobili will have to pick up even more of the slack for the Spurs to have a shot to move up in the playoff standings in the next month.
Carl Landry ($8.98): Landry seems to have finally found his level in Sacramento, and has scored at least 20 points with at least eight boards in three straight games now.
Tayshaun Prince (5.60): Prince is in this space for the second week in a row because he just continues to ramp up now that he is healthy. He is averaging almost 21 points and six boards over the last week.
Carlos Delfino ($5.06): Delfino is Mr. All-Around for the Bucks, and is actually averaging a double-double over the last week.
Quentin Richardson (4.56): Richardson is a streaky player, and over the last few games he has been in the zone. He likely won't hold that for the rest of the season so he would strictly be a hot pick to drop at the first sign that the ride is over. But anyone that can average more than 20 points, almost eight boards, and more than two steals over a week for less than $5 is worth a look.
Rodrique Beaubois ($3.57): With Jason Terry recovering from face surgery, Beaubois will have to have more weeks like this one, in which he averaged 21 points a game.
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