LeBron James has finally priced himself out of the range of reasonability.
For much of the year LBJ was battling Kobe Bryant for highest-priced player in the game, with both of them having price tags in the $60s. At that price he was still somewhat of a bargain, as incongruous as that sounds, because he was producing a time-and-a-half what Kobe was for the same price.
In the last month LeBron has started to separate himself from Kobe and everyone else both in the stat sheet and in the price tag. Before his brief injury/schedule absence last week, LeBron was routinely in the mid-$70 range that could break banks but was still conceivably worth it because he has been producing just that much. I even carried him on my team at times, despite the fact that I really needed to carry a full roster to make up games and putting a third of my money into one player limited my options.
When LeBron went for almost 10 days between games in the last two weeks I had to go ahead and sell him. At the time, he was still about $74, and I figured that he might go down a couple of bucks while he was out and if I wanted I could pick him back up when he came back. Instead, his price stayed pretty rock solid during his absence then actually shot up when the news broke that he would return on Friday. And today? Today, LeBron's price tag is almost $85, more than $20 higher than Kobe's and about $40 more than Dwyane Wade's. In fact, you could almost buy Wade and Kevin Durant both for the money that you would have to spend on LeBron.
LeBron is the best producer in the NBASE universe. There's no denying that. And if you can somehow afford to buy him (or better yet you already have him) and it doesn't leave the rest of your team empty, more power to you. But those situations are getting more and more rare, because it just isn't reasonable to spend almost half of your budget on one player. As great as it would be to have those guaranteed big points on my team, I think I'm out of the LeBron James sweepstakes until and unless something takes a big chunk out of his price tag.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
As I mention above, LeBron has priced himself out of reasonable purchase range despite the fact that every week he is the biggest NBASE producer. This week, especially, there were some lower cost options like Luis Scola and Andrew Bogut that scored right with the King. In fact, there was little space at all between what the High-priced Crew (average cost $54.07) and the Budget Squad (average cost $14.91) produced this week. And every name on the Budget Squad has been in this space repeatedly this year, so it's not like there was no way to predict that they could play with the big boys.
- David West $14.98 (LeBron James $84.47)
- Stephen Curry $15.56 (Kobe Bryant $60.23)
- Andrew Bogut $15.58 (Dwight Howard $50.49)
- Tyreke Evans $17.36 (Dwyane Wade $45.69)
- Andray Blatche $13.96 (Kevin Durant $41.26)
- Luis Scola $12.00 (Carmelo Anthony $40.24)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (3/15 - 3/21): Most of the league (17 teams) plays four games this week, with ten teams playing three times (Clippers, Grizzlies, Heat, Bucks, Timberwolves, Nets, Thunder, Suns, Kings, Raptors). But three teams play only twice (Mavericks, Magic, Trail Blazers) and should likely be avoided for the week.
Daily Prospectors: There is only one day this week with fewer than six games:
Thursday (3/18) two games: Magic/Heat, Hornets/Nuggets
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday
Two games: Nuggets, Pistons, Lakers, Wizards
Zero games: Mavericks, Bucks, Thunder, Magic, Trail Blazers, Raptors
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Hawks, Bobcats, Bulls, Cavaliers, Pacers, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Nets, Spurs
Zero games: Trail Blazers
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: Hornets, Magic
Zero games: Pistons, Lakers, Suns, Trail Blazers, Kings, Wizards
Thursday/Friday
Two games: None
Zero games: Mavericks, Clippers, Grizzlies, Nets
Friday/Saturday
Two games: Celtics, Bobcats, Bulls, Warriors, Bucks, 76ers, Raptors, Jazz
Zero games: Clippers, Magic
Saturday/Sunday
Two games: None
Zero games: Timberwolves, Magic
Sunday/Monday
Two games: Hawks, Rockets, Thunder, Suns, Kings, Spurs
Zero games: Bobcats, Nuggets
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Shawn Marion ($9.03): Marion has really picked it up since Jason Terry went down, averaging 19 points with 11.7 boards and three combined steals/blocks over the last week. The throwback numbers for Marion could end at any time, but as long as it's going he's a bargain at under $10.
Marcus Thornton ($5.40): Thornton has scored at least 23 points, grabbed at least five rebounds, and recorded at least two steals in three of his last four games. He shoots a good percentage from the field, doesn't turn the ball over, and is grossly underpriced at $5.40.
Jason Maxiell ($3.77) and Will Bynum ($5.27): With Ben Wallace and Rodney Stuckey dealing with injuries, Maxiell and Bynum have stepped up and become consistent double-double threats as starters. Stuckey will miss at least the next two games, and Wallace is still listed as questionable after missing six straight games with a knee injury. Thus, Maxiell and Bynum are still likely to outproduce their low price tags in the near future.
Raymond Felton ($8.87): Felton has quietly averaged almost nine assists to go with his 11 points and almost six boards over the last week, nice value for less than ten bucks.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
