We have only a few weeks of season left, which has ramifications for what we can expect from the players that we buy.
Any given injury now could be a season-ender for any player, especially for teams that aren't jostling for playoff position. This can mean either really bad/lottery teams, or really good contenders that have their positions locked, so be careful of buying players on those teams.
Meanwhile, teams that are jostling for playoff position are expecting their players to really round into form and bring them home down the stretch. Young/prime caliber players on these teams are among the safest buys in the game from here on in.
Another safe category of player is the young guy on the lottery team. These teams are building for the future, and they want to see what they have in their rookie/second year players so they play them big minutes and let them take lots of shots. Great for you as an owner.
On the other hand, I'd advise against picking up older players even if their teams are still jostling for position. Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett are visibly picking it up in some games, but in others where their teams are playing well they are getting extra minutes on the bench. It just isn't worth it to put $20 or $25 into a player that could only log 13 minutes in a given game (like Duncan did last week).
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag. The point is to show that spending your entire budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money.
The High Priced Crew ($53.72) outscored the Budget Crew ($13.71) this week, but not by nearly enough to justify the difference in price tags. LeBron remains on top both as a producer and with the biggest price tag, but the other high-priced guys cycle in great weeks with lesser weeks that essentially puts them on the level of the Budget players. As I mention in the Value stocks section below, Chris Paul is expected to return this week which means that Darren Collison will likely fall off of the Budget Crew in the near future while Paul will likely soon be back in the High Priced crew.
- Troy Murphy $13.09 (LeBron James $78.30)
- Stephen Curry $15.18 (Kobe Bryant $59.88)
- Al Horford $15.12 (Dwight Howard $50.12)
- Darren Collison $11.37 (Dwyane Wade $47.58)
- Manu Ginobili $13.57 (Kevin Durant $47.12)
- Vince Carter $13.94 (Carmelo Anthony $39.05)
Beating the Market: the week ahead
Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market. One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions. The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price. Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work. So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week.
Weekly prospectors (3/22 - 3/28): Most of the league (19 teams) plays four games this week, with ten teams playing three times (Bobcats, Cavaliers, Pistons, Clippers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Hornets, 76ers, Suns, Trail Blazers). The Knicks are the only team that has only two games and should likely be avoided for the week.
Daily Prospectors: There are three days this week with fewer than six games:
Tuesday (3/23) four games: Pacers/Pistons, Bobcats/Wizards, Nuggets/Knicks, Clippers/Mavericks
Thursday (3/25) three games: Heat/Bulls, Clippers/Rockets, Mavericks/Trail Blazers
Saturday (3/27) five games: Jazz/Wizards, Trail Blazers/Hornets, Nets/Bulls, Lakers/Rockets, Mavericks/Warriors
Back-to-back schedule:
Monday/Tuesday
Two games: Mavericks
Zero games: Cavaliers, Lakers, Trail Blazers
Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Bobcats, Nuggets, Pacers, Wizards
Zero games: Bulls, Heat, Suns, Trail Blazers
Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: Rockets
Zero games: Pistons, Knicks, Suns
Thursday/Friday
Two games: Heat
Zero games: Warriors, Grizzlies, Hornets
Friday/Saturday
Two games: Lakers, Nets, Jazz, Wizards
Zero games: Clippers, Grizzlies
Saturday/Sunday
Two games: Bulls, Warriors, Trail Blazers
Zero games: Bobcats, Knicks, 76ers
Sunday/Monday
Two games: Nuggets, Spurs, Raptors
Zero games: Rockets, 76ers, Wizards
Value stocks
The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed. Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on.
Pau Gasol (24.00)/Lamar Odom ($15.25): Every time Andrew Bynum gets injured, Gasol and Odom explode. Bynum missed Sunday's game with a sore Achilles tendon, and Gasol immediately went for 28 points, 12 boards and three assists while Odom grabbed 13 boards with six assists, four steals and three blocks.
Chris Paul ($22.20): Paul is expected to make his return to the court on either Monday against the Mavericks or Wednesday against the Cavaliers. There is no way to know how much Paul will play, since his team is out of the playoffs hunt and Darren Collison has done so well in his absence. Nevertheless, Paul has LeBron/Wade upside as an NBASE scorer so at his current price tag he is worth taking a flyer on.
Manu Ginobili ($13.57): Ginobili is the primary NBASE option on the Spurs right now with Tony Parker still out and Tim Duncan pacing himself down the stretch. Ginboili has averaged 25.3 points on 54% FG/90% FT with 5.3 assists, 2.8 boards and a steal over the last week.
Beno Udrih ($5.34): With Tyreke Evans (jaw) out, Udrih has stepped up to lead the Kings. He is coming off of a 20-point/17-assist effort on Sunday, and should remain a solid producer until Evans can return.
Jrue Holiday ($4.63): The 76ers are a young team with nothing to play for this season, which means that their young players are likely to get a lot of opportunities down the stretch to build for the future. Holiday is taking advantage of this to finish his rookie season with a bang, as he has averaged 15.5 points with 8.3 boards, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals over the last week.
The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA team.
