Welcome to an exciting new season playing on the NBA Stock Exchange! This game is unlike standard fantasy basketball, so as you approach the season you have to do it with an entirely different mindset. In standard head-to-head or rotisserie leagues, the only purpose is to acquire better statistics than the other owners in your league. Sleepers and breakout players still have value, but only as a means of adding quality statistics on the cheap.
In the NBASE format, though, there are two major purposes. You still need to acquire great stats to win the game, but in parallel you also have to try to maximize your earnings. Just like in a real stock market, where stock prices increase for undervalued stocks as more people buy them, in the NBASE game the monetary value of players increase as more owners buy them. As such, a sleeper or breakout player in NBASE not only helps contribute to the team's standings, but also gains a quantified amount of financial value for the team. As the players in your portfolio gain in value, you gain the money to upgrade your holdings such that as the season progresses you can trade some of your breakout guys at peak value and invest in more productive studs.
Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers
There is a very fine balance that needs to be maintained as you build your team. You need to have enough production on the squad to stay competitive in the standings, but you really need to have some potential "growth stocks" in the portfolio as it is vital to start building the value of your portfolio right away. In fact, at the start of the season, it is probably more important to build up money than it is to be near the top of the standings. This ratio will change as the season progresses, as by the end you will want to maximize standing position and money won't be as important. But early on there will be more volatile price changes than there will be at any other point in the season, and if you take advantage of that added value early on you will be in place to buy that extra production later on.
The other balance that you need to maintain as you build your initial team is the balance between your budget and what you can afford to buy. For those that have played in the past, your initial budget this year will be $180 (down from $300 in previous years) and the new player prices will reflect that lower salary. This budget doesn't go very far if you try to buy too many high-priced players.
As the season progresses I will use this space to point out lower priced players that have been performing as well as the high priced superstars, but in the initial pricing it looks to me like some of the high priced guys might still be bargains. For instance, by the end of last season there were five players (LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade) that were all selling for between $130 and $140 (roughly 45% of the initial $300 budget). Those same five players are the highest-priced to begin this year. LeBron has the highest tag at $65.50 which is only 36% of the budget. Howard is the lowest priced of the five, and his $57 tag is less than 32% of the budget. If last year's trends continue this year, all five of these guys are likely to see their prices increase relatively quickly once the market starts adjusting.
Value stocks
On your initial roster you want to get players that are undervalued and could potentially produce (and eventually be priced) at least one tier up. Here are some of the players that I believe are more valuable than their initial price. This isn't a comprehensive list, but they are several names here to keep in mind as you build your team.
LeBron James ($65.50), Chris Paul ($64.25), Dwyane Wade ($63.50), Dwight Howard ($57.00): As mentioned above, all four of these players are likely to see early price increases. But on top of that, they are also the only four players to score more than 3000 fantasy points in the NBASE system last year. Great combo of production and potential growth.
Kevin Durant ($35.50), Brandon Roy ($32.00), Al Jefferson ($31.75), Deron Williams ($31), Rajon Rondo ($28), Danny Granger ($27.25): These players were almost always in the Team Building section last season as lower priced players that were producing comparably to the big guys. With price tags roughly half of what the big boys are selling for, they still grade out as bargains.
Jose Calderon ($23.75), Caron Butler, Troy Murphy, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace (all $23.50), David Lee ($23.25), Stephen Jackson ($23), Tony Parker ($22.25): This group also spent a lot of time in the Team Building bargains section last season, but with new teammates or potentially changed roles they aren't quite as sure things. Nevertheless, they are potential big producers for only about a third of what the big guys are going for.
Manu Ginobili ($22.50), Gilbert Arenas ($27.25), Baron Davis ($21.75), Allen Iverson ($17.75): These are former mainstays at the top of the NBASE scoring system that are all coming off of injury and have to prove that they have returned to their previous glory. If they do, though, they are big bargains at their current pricing.
Brooke Lopez ($17), Andrew Bogut ($16.25), Greg Oden ($13.75): These are three young centers that all have great upside. Lopez burst onto the scene as a rookie, and if he displays a similar improvement as a sophomore he will be an impact player. Bogut was a regular among the Team Building bargains before injury ended his season, but if his back is healthy now he is still young enough to have upside. And just call it a hunch on Oden, who I think finally starts to show the talent this year that made him the number one overall pick two years ago.
Vince Carter ($23.50), Shawn Marion ($23.50), Hedo Turkoglu ($16.25): All three are former NBASE studs that are on new teams this year. Their role and production are thus question marks right now, but if they reach their former glory they would be worth double their current price tag.
Anthony Randolph and Ramon Sessions ($10.25): These two are very young players that have shown themselves to be big NBASE producers when given minutes. Both could snag starter minutes on young offensive-minded teams, and if they do they should greatly out produce their modest price tags.
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