A number of productive players are on the mend. Carson Cistulli takes a look at them and their Pick One prospects.
As the Pick One Challenge enters its eighth week, it's likely that even the most disciplined of Challengers is starting to wonder where his next meal is coming from. (Figuratively, that is. If you're actually wondering about your next meal, then I suggest you stop playing Pick One for the moment and maybe consult a local authority.) I, personally, have used some pretty big guns: LeBron, Carmelo, Durant. Nor do I regret the fact: As we've seen with players like Danny Granger, and more seriously with Greg Oden, productive players can be here one moment and gone the next. Even Kobe Bryant is currently dealing with a finger injury that could adversely affect his PRA production.
But have no fear, Challengers! Reinforcements are on the way! Below are 11 players who, because of injury or other reasons, have played fewer than 10 games this season but are still likely to produce Pick One-worthy numbers worthy of a play at some point this season.
They are:
Andris Biedrins
Reason for Absence: Back
Probable Return Date: Late December
2008-09 Averages: 11.9 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 2.0 APG (25.0 PRA)
PT Prospects: Golden State is pretty small in Biedrins' absence, so when he's ready to go, Biedrins should see a pretty good bit of playing time. With Golden State's pace of play and the big Latvian's rebounding ability, he's a good play.
Mike Dunleavy
Reason for Absence: Knee
Probable Return Date: Returned Friday, November 27
2008-09 Averages: 15.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.4 APG (21.3 PRA)
Prospects: Dunleavy's actually a good bet right now in Danny Granger's absence. That, and it's never clear when his knee injuries will pop up again. He had his best night of the season -- a 31 PRA -- on Saturday, December 12, also playing a season-high 27 minutes.
Rip Hamilton
Reason for Absence: Ankle
Probable Return Date: Returned Saturday, December 12
2008-09 Averages: 18.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 4.4 APG (25.8 PRA)
Prospects: Saturday's return was Hamilton's first game since the season opener. That he played 37 minutes is a bit surprising, but I'm sure no Challengers will be complaining about it. It appeared as though some combination of Jonas Jerebko or Will Bynum could limit Hamilton's minutes. That's looking less likely now.
Josh Howard
Reason for Absence: Ankle
Probable Return Date: Returned Tuesday, December 8
2008-09 Averages: 18.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 APG (24.7 PRA)
Prospects: Coach Rick Carlisle has told the media that Howard would not play in both games of a back-to-back set for the time being. That's one thing to consider. The other is whether he'll approach the 32 MPG he averaged last year. Not for now, is probably the answer.
Allen Iverson
Reason for Absence: Fake Retirement
Probable Return Date: Returned Monday, December 7
2008-09 Averages: 17.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.0 APG (25.5 PRA)
Prospects: Iverson's much ballyhooed return to Philly is a gift to Challengers everywhere -- especially so long as Louis Williams is out. Still, be careful: Iverson is dealing with fluid in his left knee and a stress reaction in his right shin. So long as he's on the court, he should be worth something North of 20 PRA.
Kevin Love
Reason for Absence: Hand
Probable Return Date: Returned Friday, December 4
2008-09 Averages: 11.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.0 APG (21.2 PRA)
Prospects: Love has posted double-digits in points and rebounds in five of the six games since his return. He also recently returned to Minnesota's starting five. Translation: He's good to go at any time.
Kevin Martin
Reason for Absence: Wrist
Probable Return Date: Early January
2008-09 Averages: 24.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 2.7 APG (30.9 PRA)
Prospects: Martin played the first five games of the season, posting averages of 30.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 2.6 APG (38.0 PRA). Whatever his deficiencies, he's a top 10 Pick One performer and should be played sooner than later when he returns.
Tracy McGrady
Reason for Absence: Knee
Probable Return Date: A Mystery
2008-09 Averages: 15.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.0 APG (25.0 PRA)
Prospects: Reports out of Houston suggest that McGrady might be ready to go as soon as this very minute, but the Rockets are remaining tight-lipped about the former All-Star's return. When he does return, it'll likely be off the bench. It's probably best to let him get close to 30 MPG before making a go of him.
Mike Miller
Reason for Absence: Calf
Probable Return Date: Late December
2008-09 Averages: 9.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 4.5 APG (21.0 PRA)
Prospects: Miller's a weird player. Despite being an excellent shooter (lifetime 46.3 FG% and 40.2 3FG%), he averaged under 10 PPG last season and through the first nine games of this year, as well. Regardless, his rebounding and assists numbers make up for those deficiencies. When Miller returns, he should take over the starting shooting guard spot once again.
Tayshaun Prince
Reason for Absence: Back
Probable Return Date: Imminent
2008-09 Averages: 14.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.1 APG (23.1 PRA)
Prospects: When he's healthy -- which, present moment excepted, he usually is -- Prince is about as reliable a Pick One contributor as you'd hope for. Granted, he doesn't post giant numbers, but play the match-up right, and you have a pretty good shot of a PRA from him. It remains to be seen what Prince's exact role will be with Hamilton, Villanueva, and Jerebko in the mix. Confusing, might be the answer.
Michael Redd
Reason for Absence: Knee
Probable Return Date: Returned Saturday, December 12
2008-09 Averages: 21.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.7 APG (27.1 PRA)
Prospects: Whatever the opposite of "returning with a vengeance" is, that's what Redd has done. In the six games he's played this season, Redd has averaged only 25.8 MPG with a line of 10.0 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 2.3 APG (15.0 PRA). Certainly, the emergence of Brandon Jennings has had something to do with that. Whatever the reason, Redd isn't worth a play till he's hitting 30+ MPG, probably.
Tyrus Thomas
Reason for Absence: Arm
Probable Return Date: Late December
2008-09 Averages: 10.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.0 APG (18.2 PRA)
Prospects: Though Thomas's season averages from last year aren't super impressive, consider that, over the season's final month, he put up a line of 14.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 1.0 APG (23.2 PRA). That's worth a play. When he returns, Thomas will have to deal with Taj Gibson, who's filled a lot of minutes at power forward since Thomas went down.
Now, on to this week's picks.
Date: Monday, December 14, 2009
Player: Wes Matthews - UTA
Opposition: vs Minnesota
2009-2010 Averages: 9.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.3 APG (26.4 PRA)
General Thoughts: Yes, yes: I recognize that the 76ers are playing at home against Golden State tonight. And yes, I understand that Golden State is incredibly generous with the old points-allowed these days. But regard: I've already used Iguodala, Iverson is having some sort of right shin issue, and there's no one else of use right now on Philly. Meanwhile, Utah plays seventh-worst Minnesota and Wes Matthews, a rookie, is (a) playing well of late and (b) due to give up some PT to C.J. Miles in the near future.
Date: Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Player: Raymond Felton - CHA
Opposition: vs New York
2009-2010 Averages: 12.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.2 APG (20.3 PRA)
General Thoughts: If Quentin Richardson weren't a question mark physically right now, he'd be a pretty sweet play tonight against Toronto. He's been routinely playing 35+ minutes of late and posting PRAs around 25 or so. Given his journeyman status, there's no reason to feel comfortable that that sort of production will continue. Alas, he's dealing with a hamstring injury. Dwayne Wade, for his part, is also dealing with an injury -- this one to his wrist. In the meantime, I'll look to Charlotte, playing host to the Knicks. In particular, I like Felton here. He's posted PRAs of 29 or more in three of his last five games but is in danger of giving up his post to D.J. Augustin at any moment.
Date: Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Player: Rashard Lewis - ORL
Opposition: vs Toronto
2009-2010 Averages: 9.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 APG (15.2 PRA)
General Thoughts: Let's be very clear about one fact: In Pick One Challenge, there's no such thing as a Sure Bet. In Pick One -- just as in actual, real-live basketball -- there are always variables that can dash even the most well-laid plans. Even so, that doesn't mean we should't use -- as famous detective Hercule Poirot would call them -- "the little grey cells." Tonight presents an interesting case: Orlando plays at home versus the second most friendly defenders, the Toronto Raptors. You wanna know something about Toronto? They allow 7.8 three-pointers per game ("good" for second worst in the NBA). You wanna know something about Rashard Lewis? He's fifth among qualified NBA-ers with 2.5 three-pointers made per game. Again, it's not a Sure Bet, but if you figure you have to play Lewis at some point, then this makes as much sense as any other.
Date: Thursday, December 17, 2009
Player: Joakim Noah - CHI
Opposition: vs New York
2009-2010 Averages: 10.2 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.5 APG (24.5 PRA)
General Thoughts: New York center David Lee is a fine, fine player. Consider: He's a double-double machine, even averaging 18.2 PPG and 10.2 RPG on the season. Plus, his shooting percentages -- 57.3% from the field and 75.2% from the line -- are excellent for a big man. Thing is, he's not necessarily what you'd call a "lock down" defender. According to 82games.com, Lee is conceding a PER of 23.3 to opposing centers -- just a bit below his personal PER of 23.4. Of course, it's not entirely his fault: dude is only 6'9" and plays in a wide-open offense. Still, Noah probably won't be thinking about that as he puts up a line of 12 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assists against the Knicks.
Date: Friday, December 18, 2009
Player: Chris Kaman - LAC
Opposition: at New York
2009-2010 Averages: 18.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.7 APG (29.0 PRA)
General Thoughts: Please remember all the way back to yesterday when I wrote, in re New York center David Lee: He's "not necessarily what you'd call a 'lock down' defender. According to 82games.com, Lee is conceding a PER of 23.3 to opposing centers..." Remember that? Well I wasn't lying yesterday, and I'm not lying now. In this articular, the beneficiary of Lee's porous defense will most likely be Kaman. It's probably best to pick Kaman -- and Marcy Camby, too, for that matter -- some time before Blake Griffin's return from injury in January. It's unclear how Griffin will affect the duo's playing time, but one can only assume he won't increase it.
Date: Saturday, December 19, 2009
Player: Andrew Bogut - MIL
Opposition: vs Sacramento
2009-2010 Averages: 14.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.1 APG (25.5 PRA)
General Thoughts: Fuddruckers. Despite a slate of nine games, none of the three worst Opponent PPG teams (Golden State, Toronto, New York) are playing tonight -- and the Suns, fourth on the aforementioned list, are playing at home. All of which is what brings me to Milwaukee, where the Bucks play host to Sacramento. Don't look now, but oft-injured center Andrew Bogut is in the midst of a nice little run: In the last three games before the present week started, he averaged 33.3 PRA/g, scoring 25 points in two of the three. Bogut's the type of player for whom, owing to his recent health issues, you have to forgo the luxury of awaiting the very best match-up.
Date: Sunday, December 20, 2009
Player: Stephen Jackson - CHA
Opposition: at New York
2009-2010 Averages: 18.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG (26.6 PRA)
General Thoughts: Of the five most recent games he'd played up till Sunday afternoon, the fewest minutes that Stephen Jackson had played in any of them was 42. And, besides an 18 PRA aberration on Saturday, December 5, the lowest PRA he'd posted over that time frame was a 30. If you asked him about it, he'd probably say, "That's just Stephen being Stephen." Or maybe he'd say, "That's how a player play." Or maybe... Okay, I admit it, I don't really know what Stephen Jackson would say. But he's a good play tonight -- as are his Bobcat friends Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton.
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