Every week in this space I give you two lists of players that are outperforming their price tags (Team Building and Value Stocks).  Often these lists are comprised of well established players with a history of production whose price is just low for whatever reason, but sometimes I'll note some very cheap players (call them penny stocks) who are producing enough for relevance but are unlikely to become fantasy studs anytime soon.   For example, I note below in this article that Samuel Dalembert has averaged 13 rebounds, 11 points and three blocked shots this week but he only costs $5.80.  That is very solid production for the price, so if an NBASE owner has a roster hole to fill and only a few bucks to spend he could provide some value.

But while Dalembert could provide some decent short-term value, I also notice that for the year he is only averaging seven points and eight boards and his minutes have fluctuated a lot.  Unless his new production is tied in some way to Allen Iverson (who was added to the Sixers right when he started playing well) the odds are that Dalembert's numbers will fall back to earth sooner rather than later and you will have to sell him.  Once you factor in the fees and the fact that Dalembert's price isn't really likely to boom unless he maintains his current pace for at least another week or two, it may not be worth it to use a player like him in the long run.

That is the revelation that I had this week.  I will continue to note when players like Dalembert or Early Boykins (IPO on Tuesday for $4.50) are producing on the cheap, but unless I really need the games played and/or I really believe this player will maintain this production over a long period I won't be adding them to my team anymore.  I still might speculate on a young player with upside or a very cheap superstar coming off of hardship (like Allen Iverson, for example, who I bought for about $7 and currently is near $13), but no more will I plug a hole with just any cheap player who is temporarily hot.  Over the long haul, outside of price speculating I think team stability is better value for your team than adding/dropping players that don't have the real potential to grow/produce more than the costs of the add/drop fees are worth.

Team Building: Weekly scoring trends for bargain shoppers

Through this season I will identify the highest priced players in the league, and then give you alternative players that produced at a similar level but with a much lower price tag.  The point is to show that spending all of your budget on the high priced players isn't the best use of your money. 

This week I decided to formalize the standards for the Budget Crew.  The High Priced team is everyone over $35, so I will make the Budget maximum price $17.50 so that every player is less than half of the price of their more expensive counterpart.  Also, along the lines of wanting more consistency than possible penny stock flukes, I will try to only include established players with a track record of strong play among the Budget team.

The High Priced team this week (average cost $45.70) has six members with Kevin Durant joining the party and Dwyane Wade just on the outside looking in.  The Budget Crew (average cost $14.81) has three power forwards, a swingman, a point guard and a rookie combo guard that has already made a name for himself.

• Zach Randolph $15.65 (LeBron James $65.11)
• Tyreke Evans $14.56 (Kobe Bryant $53.29)
• Stephen Jackson $10.26 (Carmelo Anthony $42.21)
• Al Jefferson $15.08 (Dwight Howard $39.64)
• Gilbert Arenas $16.11 (Chris Paul $35.71)

Beating the Market: the week ahead

Two short-term strategies have emerged to try to beat the market.  One is to pick up players that are going to play a lot of games in a given week, to maximize short-term profit vs. production without having to worry much about player locks and rising commissions.  The other is to schedule on a daily basis, paying attention to players that play back-to-back games and/or play on days with not very many games scheduled that might see daily spikes in price.  Each strategy can be good for making money in a hurry, but you need to really stay on top of things for it to work.  So in this space, I will give you the information that you need to adopt either strategy for the upcoming week. 

Weekly prospectors (12/14 - 12/20): The vast majority of teams play four games this week (22 teams), while the other eight play three games (Hawks, Celtics, Bulls, Warriors, Heat, Bucks, Suns, Spurs).  So this is a week to sign players based on production value more than game scarcity.

Daily Prospectors: There is only one day with fewer than six games this week:
Thursday (12/17) three games: Knicks/Bulls, Magic/Heat, Suns/Trail Blazers

Back-to-back schedule:

Monday/Tuesday
Two games: None
Zero games: Hawks, Bucks

Tuesday/Wednesday
Two games: Bobcats, Cavaliers, Pistons, Rockets, Lakers, Nets, Kings, Spurs, Raptors
Zero games: Celtics

Wednesday/Thursday
Two games: Magic
Zero games: Celtics

Thursday/Friday
Two games: Kniks
Zero games: Bobcats, Lakers, Spurs

Friday/Saturday
Two games: Hawks, Rockets, Pacers, Clippers, Bucks, Nets, Thunder, 76ers, Kings, Jazz, Wizards
Zero games: Heat

Saturday/Sunday
Two games: Bobcats, Lakers, Trail Blazers
Zero games: Warriors

Sunday/Monday
Two games: Cavaliers
Zero games: Hawks, Warrors, Rockets, Nets, Thunder, 76ers, Wizards

Value stocks

The market moves so fast that by the time this article comes out many of the player values will have already changed.  Nevertheless, these are some players worth keeping your eyes on. 

Pau Gasol ($19.47): Gasol has been in this space several times in the few weeks since he has returned from injury, and he will continue to show up in this space for as long as he stays up near the top of the fantasy points scored list each week while remaining a mid-priced player.

Al Jefferson ($15.08): Jefferson entered the year still rehabbing his surgically repaired knee, and defenses were also focused on him because with Kevin Love out the Timberwolves lacked any other players for the opponent to worry about.  His knee is getting stronger, though, and with Love back Jefferson is getting more opportunities.  He has posted six double-doubles in a row, including his last two games where he has averaged 25 points and 12 boards.

Troy Murphy ($10.21): Murphy was a fantasy stud last season who has gotten off to a slower start this season due to back injury.  But he has been ramping up lately with three double-doubles in his last five games, and with Danny Granger out he exploded for his biggest offensive game of the season on Saturday with 28 points and four assists to go with his 12 boards.

Andrew Bogut ($9.41): When healthy, Bogut stays on my undervalued list because he consistently flirts with being a 20-10 guy though no one seems to realize it.  His health is always a factor, but when he's in the Bucks line-up he tends to be in my NBASE line-up as well.

Elton Brand ($7.20)/Sam Dalembert ($5.80): As mentioned above, Dalembert has been tearing it up for the last week and Brand has also been solid since being reinserted into the line-up.  At this point both Brand and Dalembert qualify as risky penny stocks, but at the least keep your eye on them to see if their rise in play really is somehow tied to the return of Allen Iverson to the 76ers team.

The views expressed by RotoWire.com represent only the views of  the writers; they do not represent the views of the NBA or any NBA  team.